Bovada’s NFL Week 12 Betting Picks
Sunday features five games with point spreads in the double digits — an astonishing number considering the parity we’ve seen throughout the year. Surely, some matchups will end in blowouts, others, we’re not so sure. There’s just too much on the line, namely playoff positioning, at this critical juncture.
With that in mind, here’s our week 11 betting guide, with all odds courtesy of Bovada:
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-17)
Look, the Dolphins are very bad. They are putting up 15.7 points per game, second-worst in the NFL, and their overall quarterback rating is hovering at 79.6. On the flipside, the Patriots are scorching hot. They’ve reeled off six straight wins, holding opponents to 17 points or less in each game. Still, a 17-point spread? That’s too high for our liking.
Miami should receive a boost from quarterback Matt Moore, who gets the nod over a concussed Jay Cutler. The gunslinger Moore threw for 282 yards in the second half a week ago — more than Cutler has thrown in any game this year aside from one. He’s averaging 6.95 yards per throw, one more yard than Cutler. Moore is more than capable of keeping this a three-score game.
Pick: Miami (+17)
Over/under 54 points: New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
This over/under is a real toss-up. Both offenses are scoring more than 30 points per contest. Likewise, the two defenses are allowing fewer than 20 points a game through the year. However, we expect this to be a run-dominated game, which favors the under.
Los Angeles (7-3) was held to a season-low seven points last week after its run game was stifled for 45 yards. As bright as Jared Goff’s future is, Todd Gurley is the keycog of the offense. If he doesn’t get going, a one-dimensional Rams team is very containable. Opponents are rushing for 4.7 yards per carry against the Saints this season, which bodes well for Gurley.
New Orleans (8-2) will have no issues running the rock themselves. After another monster game between the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara — in last week’s win over Washington, the duo tallied 176 yards rushing and 95 yards catching, along with two total touchdowns — they have a strong case for being the best backfield in the league. The Saints are averaging an NFL-high 4.8 yards on the ground.
Gurley, Ingram, and Kamara will do their damage, but will chew through the clock enough to keep this game an under.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
How on Earth are the Chiefs (6-4) 10-point favorites? They’ve lost four of their last five, including an embarrassing 12-9 overtime loss to the lowly Giants a week ago.
During Kansas City’s free fall the last five games, they are averaging just 19.6 points per game. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has especially cooled off during the stretch. Hunt has rolled up 264 in the last five games — after running for 609 yards in the season’s first five games.
Of course, Buffalo (5-5) is not without their issues. Benching quarterback Tyrod Taylor blew up in their face after Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in one half last week. Taylor is back at starter in this one, but it’s painfully obvious the Bills don’t have any confidence in him.
Still, you have to think Taylor will be playing with a big chip on his shoulder on Sunday. No, he’s not a franchise-caliber quarterback, but he’s not a scrub, either. Taylor should be able to move the chains against a Chiefs defense that is being burned for 253.8 yards per game through the air, fifth-most in the NFL.
Pick: Buffalo (+10)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Revenge game! In his second start for Arizona (4-6), Blaine Gabbert gets his chance at sticking it to his former team. Jacksonville chose Gabbert 10th overall back in 2011 and after three forgettable seasons, thanks to ineptness on both sides, the two split.
Gabbert played well last week against Houston. He threw for 257 yards and three scores. A stud Jacksonville (7-3) defense — one that is allowing a league-low 162 yards passing — is a huge step up from the injury-decimated Texans, but Gabbert will certainly be motivated.
With the Gabbert dynamic, plus playing at home, Arizona keeps it close.
Pick: Arizona (+5.5)
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