Bovada’s Best Bets of NFL Week 11
With meetings between Cowboys-Eagles, Vikings-Rams, and Patriots-Raiders, you have serious playoff previews this week. Matter of fact, those six teams make up most of the league’s Super Bowl contenders at this point. Obviously, those three matchups will command the most betting action this week. Don’t sit on the sidelines on either, we broke down the matchups that will decide those games. Here’s our betting guide, with all odds brought to you by Bovada.
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Before the season, few would’ve imagined a mid-season duel between Jared Goff and Case Keenum would be must-watch NFL TV, but that’s exactly what we have here.
Goff is engineering the highest-scoring (32.9 points per game) attack in the league, all the while the Rams enjoy a 7-2 mark. Keenum has fended off the return of Teddy Bridgewater and orchestrated five consecutive wins for the 7-2 Vikings.
The two are former teammates, too, as Goff replaced Keenum as the starter a year ago. Both quarterback’s return to prominence this season is evidence that Jeff Fisher was the problem in Los Angeles, not either signal caller’s talent levels.
Moreover, this is a classic best-offensive-vs-best-defense matchup. Minnesota ranks fifth in both points allowed (294.6) and yards (18.3) per game. One team ahead of the Vikings’ defense? The Rams, who are giving up a flat 18 points per game.
Expect this game to be won more by defense, rather than the streaking quarterbacks. Still, Goff will make one or two more game-changing plays than Keenum, and will the Rams to victory.
Pick: Rams (+2)
Over/under 55 points: New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders
Talk of New England’s (7-2) lackluster defense should be over now after thumping Denver 41-16 last week. Yes, we know Brock Osweiler has no business being a starting NFL quarterback, but the Patriots have held opponents to 17 points or less in five straight games — all wins.
Furthermore, playing that game in the Mile High prepared them for Sunday’s showdown in Mexico City, which is 2,000 feet higher above elevation than Denver. Those unheard-of playing conditions, coupled with the city’s smog, could lead to some gassed defenses as the game stretches on.
With Oakland reeling from injuries in the secondary, it may be on Derek Carr to outgun Tom Brady, which is no easy task and Carr has been wildly erratic as of late. In his past four games, Carr has thrown six touchdowns against five interceptions.
Brady and company will do their part in the scoring department, but it still won’t be enough to push this game toward an over.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The great NFL debate between what’s more important, a pulverizing offensive line or playmaking runner, was perhaps settled last week in Dallas’ 27-7 loss to Atlanta. Without Ezekiel Elliot, the Cowboys (5-4) offense was non-existent. Sure they rushed for 107 total yards on 21 carries, but it was Prescott who suffered the most with his play-action mostly muffled. Atlanta feasted on the quarterback, sacking him an eye-popping eight times.
Philadelphia (8-1) had an extra week to prepare for this one while on its bye week and a win here puts them in the driver’s seat in the NFC East, despite six games remaining after Sunday. Quarterback Carson Wentz will also look to strengthen his candidacy for MVP. The second-year Wentz has 23 touchdowns and only five picks this year, as the Eagles are putting up 31.4 points a game behind him.
Not only is Elliott out, but so is linebacker Sean Lee of Dallas. Lee, an eight-year veteran, is the heart and soul of an already mediocre Cowboys’ defense. His void will be too tough to fill as Philly rolls in this clash.
Pick: Philadelphia (-4.5)
Over/under 37 points: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Here’s our bonus bet. While this matchup doesn’t have the storylines and starpower like the others, the line was too good to pass up.
This one will be an easy over because of the quarterbacks. No, we’re not implying that Blake Bortles and DeShone Kizer are going to shred any defenses. Heck, you can make a strong argument both are two of the worst starting signal callers in the league.
That leads me to why this will be an over: turnovers. Only one team has earned more takeaways than Jacksonville’s 18. It gets better. No team has given up the ball more than Cleveland with 23. Those mistakes will become points on Sunday, and you’ll get your over.
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