UFC 276 is fast approaching on July 2. It's a card you don't want to miss featuring a trilogy fight (Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway) and a headline bout from one of the sport's brightest stars, Izzy Adesanya. Here's a betting look at the night's top fights in Las Vegas. We're giving you our top UFC 276 betting picks so keep reading on for expert advice!
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Pick
This will be Adesanya's fifth middleweight title defense. At this point, "The Last Stylebender" has cleared out most of the division already — Marvin Vettori (twice), Robert Whittaker (twice too), along with plenty of others. Given his dominance, it should be no surprise the most popular online sportsbooks are favoring Adesanya big time on the moneyline, to the tune of -375. There's not a lot of money to be made off that (unless you think Cannonier pulls the upset), so our Adesnaya pick is on the fight's over/under instead. Here's where it's set at:
|Over 4.5 rounds fought||-140||-140|
|Under 4.5 rounds fought||+110||+110|
Despite Cannonier's long odds to win (+275), he shouldn't be completely counted out. There's a reason this man is called the "Killa Gorilla." He's a muscular specimen and he can club with the best of 'em. Cannonier has five wins in his last six bouts — with all but one coming by knockout. He's the type of fighter that'll want to press Adesanya, which could be his path to victory or defeat, depending on your perspective.
For one, Adesanya generally fares well against aggressive fighters. Paulo Costa immediately comes to mind, who was TKO'd in the second round by Adesanya. But at the same time, Costa was fighting overly aggressively, likely from built-up tension in the leadup to that fight after constant trash talk. Cannonier won't be that foolish, but also, he can't afford to since he's four inches shorter than the reigning champion.
But if you're Cannonier, earning a decision win also seems likely out of the question. Let's be real, he's not going to outpoint a technician like Adesanya. And if he does, he'll likely need to dominate the fight to earn the judge's decision since we all know champions get the benefit of the doubt on close rounds more often than not. "Going for broke" and the KO is Cannonier's most realistic path to victory at UFC 276.
We don't see it happening, though. Adesanya's fighting range and counter-striking is truly elite. If Cannonier presses, which he should, this one has stoppage potential despite the champ's reputation for being "boring." It's boring because his opponents are scared to end up on Adesanya's highlight reel, which feels like destiny for Cannonier. Take the under!
UFC 276: Holloway vs Volkanovski Pick
Holloway gets one more crack at Volkanovski's featherweight belt, perhaps for the last time if he can't win. Both previous encounters favored Volkanovski but in wildly different ways. The first meeting at UFC 245 was completely one-sided. The rematch seven months later was a controversial split decision, with many fans arguing which fighter truly won. There should be no more debates after UFC 276. As it stands, Volkanovski is the clear-cut betting favorite to win at major UFC betting sites:
You could argue Holloway isn't deserving of a third match after two losses, but he has impressed in his last two fights — a pair of unanimous decision wins against Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodríguez. These two are the clear No. 1 and No. 2 fighters in the featherweight division. But still, it's worth asking, how much can Holloway really switch up against Volkanovski to beat him this time around?
We're not optimistic there's much to improve on. Volkanovski, as we've all seen amid his career undefeated streak, is as well-rounded as they come. Striking, leg kicks, wrestling — it's all tools he can use at his disposal despite his height disadvantage against Halloway. We're betting that the reigning champ pulls off the sweep in another hard-fought battle. Like we pointed out earlier before, reigning champs always get close calls if it comes down to it.
UFC 276: Sean O'Malley vs Pedro Munhoz Pick
We're only including a pick between O'Malley and Munhoz because we think this fight should be added to a parlay — and not bet standalone. O'Malley should cruise to victory here (more on that soon), but at -260 moneyline odds, there's not much betting value from that by itself. As an extra parlay leg, though? Now we're adding value!
O'Malley has a large height (five inches) and reach (seven inches) advantage over Munhoz. That plays right into his attack-minded offensive style. Our prediction is that O'Malley wins this fight by knockout.
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