Nate Diaz is the headline act of UFC 279 — in what is likely his swan song for the fight promotion (for now). Bettors looking to say bye to Diaz should read this because we have betting picks on multiple UFC 279 bouts, even beyond the main event. Read on for researched betting advice!
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz Betting Pick
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a UFC pay-per-view event with main event odds this lopsided. Take a look at how the best UFC betting sites have pegged the moneyline odds between Chimaev and Diaz:
We’re going to be completely honest and say Diaz is going to be destroyed in the last fight or his current UFC contract. That’s not to discredit the 37-year-old fan favorite but this is just a flat-out terrible matchup. Chimaev has rose up to No. 3 in the welterweight ranks with a 5-0 record in the promotion. He’s not just winning either, but dominating foes — including Gilbert Burns last time out.
Chimaev is prone to explosive finishes, either with his fists or submission holds. That’s why oddsmakers have also set the over/under at only 1.5 rounds, and remember, as a main event, this is a five-rounder despite no belt being on the line. Here’s the betting options:
|Over 1.5 rounds||-155||-155|
|Under 1.5 rounds||+125||+125|
Yes, we think Diaz is overmatched, but we still think he can survive at least two rounds. He has 13 losses on his resume but only three came via stoppage. Diaz is tough as nails and prone to surprises — beating Conor McGregor the first time and almost stopping Leon Edwards in his last octagon outing. Due to Diaz's gutsy nature, we’re betting the over here. It’s the only way to make money off this main event because the moneyline is useless unless you think Diaz is getting the upset (highly unlikely).
Tony Ferguson vs. Li Jingliang Betting Pick
Like the main event, this bout also features a crowd pleaser in the twilight of his career — “El Cucuy” Tony Ferguson. And again, that fighter is the clear underdog, but it’s not nearly as lopsided in the main event. Here are the current fight odds between Ferguson and Li:
Ferguson is finished, no doubt about it. He’s on a four-fight streak that started in 2020 — and most those defeats were brutal. Back in May, Michael Chandler knocked him out with a nasty kick in a KO-of-the-year caliber finish. He’s 38 and clearly only around because he can sell tickets and draw eyeballs.
With that said, Li is interesting match-making for Ferguson. The latter has spent his career at lightweight, but is moving up to welterweight for this one. Li isn’t as formidable of an opponent as Ferguson’s recent competition (Chandler, Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliviera) and is also up there in age at 34. Regardless, Li has stoppage power — a bad recipe for a body that’s taken as much damage as Ferguson has.
Li has been in the UFC since 2014. He has an 11-5 record but has won five of the past seven. During that streak, four victories have come courtesy of KOs. We hate to see it, but Ferguson is once again going to end up on a highlight reel for all the wrong reasons. Take Li’s moneyline here and perhaps throw it on a parlay with our previous pick to make it more worthwhile money-wise.
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez Betting Pick
This fight was a late addition to the UFC 279 card. Unlike the main and semi-main event, Holland vs. Rodriguez is expected to be more competitive and that’s reflected in the betting odds:
The bout is being held at catchweight (180 pounds). Both fighters have hovered around welterweight and middleweight most their careers so catchweight is reasonable. Each guy comes in here with a win streak intact.
After a rough patch that included two losses and a no contest, Holland went to welterweight to start 2022. In the division again, he’s pulled off two submission wins which puts his career record at a respectable 23-7 MMA (10-4 UFC). That likely explains why Holland is the betting favorite, however, Rodriguez is not one to underestimate either. The 35-year-old — six years older than Holland — has won six of seven UFC fights.
We’re picking Holland to prevail. His power and speed look pristine at this weight and unlike Rodriguez, he’s in the prime of his career right now. Rogriguez’s boxing style is aggressive, but also leaves himself vulnerable to big shots. We’re betting Holland lands one and earns the KO victory.
How To Bet On UFC 279 Card?
When you factor in the preliminary card, there are 12 different fights to bet at UFC 279 — each of these with moneylines, over/under, and props. To take advantage of the opportunities, head to one of the bookmakers featured in the underneath table. Not only do these sites have a bevy or betting lines, but also huge types of bonuses for free play.
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