He's back — Jon "Bones" Jones makes his return to the octagon that's three years in the making. Jones gets a shot at the vacant heavyweight title shot against Cirly Gane on Saturday, March 4 in Las Vegas. With a main event like that, UFC 285 betting is an absolute must. If you need help, keep on reading because we're giving free UFC 285 bets right here — not only on the main event but the semi-main event too!
Let's first look at UFC 285 odds available at UFC's best betting sites. As it stands, the Jones-Gane odds favor Bones, but not by a huge margin:
Jones Vs. Gane Betting Picks
Perhaps no one has a stronger case as UFC’s G.O.A.T. than “Bones” Jones. He’s never been truly defeated in the ring (his one loss was a result of a disqualification in a fight he was comfortably winning). Jones can do it all in the octagon — wrestle and strike with his ultra-long limbs. There’s just an aura to him that no other UFC combatant has had. However, all that is past tense when picking between Jones and Gane.
There are serious question marks about what Jones' current capability coming into Saturday. He’s now 35 years old and hasn’t fought since 2020 against Dominick Cruz, a fight he didn’t particularly look good in. This is also his first fight at heavyweight after dominating the light heavyweight class.
Not only that, but Jones is running into a truck in Gane. This guy can club with the best of ‘em and might be the best heavyweight in the world not named Francis Ngannou. His elusiveness really stands out, which negates one of Jones’s advantages as a quick-moving fighter. Jones still has a 3.5-inch ready advantage, but won’t have his usual size advantage he did at light heavyweight.
Gane will surely want to keep this fight standing up. As we said, he’s got heavy hands, courtesy of his Muy Thai background. Jones would be smart to fall back on his wrestling ability. Ngannou had success taking down Gane, which is a formula Jones would be smart to copy cause he’s probably not going to outbox Gane.
In the end, we can’t look past Jones’ question marks. His skills appeared to be in decline in his last two bouts — both evenly-fought decisions— which could only be hastened by three years of inactivity. As physically gifted as Jones is, MMA is not a sport that’s kind to inactive fighters. Gane is the pick to make here.
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds
|Over 4.5 rounds||-145||-145||-145|
|Under 4.5 rounds||+115||+115||+115|
We’re not quite done with the main event. Jones is the second biggest star in the company so his return warrants more money. For us, we’re interested in the over/under. It’s a way to guess just how Gane pulls off this victory.
A knockout feels imminent. Jones, while a better wrestler than Ngannou, is not nearly as strong as the ex-heavyweight champion. Therefore, we’re not confident he'll struggle to take Gane down. If so, Gane will have ample opportunity to score the knockdown while trading strikes standing up. Our money says one of those strikes lands with finishing power.
On the surface, that sounds comical given Jones' history. Beyond his own offensive prowess, Jones has displayed a strong chin. But again, this is not the Jones' of old. He's well past his prime and don't forget, one of the first things that go with age is the chin. He's also never been clubbed by a heavyweight so under 4.5 rounds seems highly plausible here.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Betting Pick
Shevchenko will be putting her flyweight title on the line, and surprise surprise, the fight's moneyline is way, way lopsided. The champion, riding a nine-fight win streak is favored -700 to win. For that reason, our Shevchenko-Gasso betting pick will be focused on the fight's over/under which is also set at 4.5 rounds. Here's where the odds currently stand:
|Over 4.5 rounds||+120||+120||+120|
|Under 4.5 rounds||-150||-150||-150|
As elite of a striker and knockout specialist as Shevchenko is, she goes to the judges' scorecard almost as much as ends things early. During this winning streak, four of the nine wins came via decision. So we were tempted to take the over since Shevchenko, like Jones, looked vulnerable the last time we saw her in the octagon. However, we're deciding against it and betting the under.
Why? Because if Grasso wins, we think it'll be by knockout. Grasso is a boxer so she has flash knockdown potential. But at the same time, her aggressive style could also get her caught by Shevchenko's fists. Either way, we're betting one of the two gets dropped for good in this title fight.
How To Bet On UFC 285
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