The next major fight card is UFC 277 on July 30 in Dallas, Texas. The card is headlined by two title fights that happen to be rematches. Read this article to get the top betting picks for UFC 277 — picks we’re confident can make you a pretty profit by the end of the month!
Juliana Pena vs. Amanda Nunes Betting Pick
The first time these two bantamweights fought (only seven months ago at UFC 269), Nunes was as high as -1110 to win and Pena closed a +600 longshot. The odds are significantly shorter in the Pena vs. Nunes rematch per top-rated online sportsbooks, as seen below:
At UFC 269, Pena pulled off one of the biggest upsets in promotion history, not only handing Nunes — the G.O.A.T. of the women's division — her first loss in eight years, but doing so in convincing fashion. In the decisive second round, the two women traded punches back and forth, an exchange that tired Nunes out. This left her open for Pena to take her down and lock in a rear-naked choke for the submission victory.
Despite that no-second-guessing win, Pena is once again an underdog. The belief among popular UFC betting sites and pundits is that Nunes' defeat was “fluky” and, well, she’s still the sport’s best female fighter ever. We don’t deny the second part of that statement, but not the first. Pena matches up extremely well with Nunes and that’s going to hold true for the upcoming rematch.
Nunes can strike with the best of ‘em, but in Pena, she met her match. Not only does Pena have the chin to withstand blows, as evident in the second round they fought, but she can give them right back. Pena’s heavy hands caught most by surprise, but especially Nunes who was battered by overhand rights and left hooks at UFC 269. Does that force Nunes and her team to be less aggressive in the second fight? If so, is Nunes really herself when she can’t attack at will?
One thing for sure is Nunes has to control her gas tank better at UFC 277. She was completely exhausted after six or so minutes in the first bout, which some think could’ve been a hangover effect from catching COVID-19. It’s plausible, but at the same time, Nunes is 34 now. And getting punched really hard, as she did by Pena, has a way of expending energy.
We don’t expect Nunes to underestimate Pena once again, but we’re not either. Our gut instinct says Pena really has Nunes number, hence us picking her on the moneyline. It’s worth mentioning that no female fighter has ever won the UFC title coming from a loss in their previous fight. This could be the beginning of the end for Nunes as crazy as that sounds.
Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France Betting Pick
Like the aforementioned main event, this will also be a rematch. It’s for the interim flyweight championship with the winner all but guaranteed a bout again title-holder Deiveson Figueiredo to unify the straps. As it stands, bookies have pegged Moreno the betting favorite over Kara-France, but not by a whole lot:
Back at UFC 245 in late 2019, Moreno was the victor between these two. He won a unanimous decision that led to the classic series against Figueiredo, that’s split across three bouts (one win for each and a draw). Kara-France shot himself up to a No. 2 ranking in the class by winning four of the next five fights. However, both fighters have improved in the two-and-half-year span since the first duel, hence why Moreno isn’t a runaway betting favorite despite a convincing win at UFC 245.
We expect a much closer fight between these two at UFC 277 but the same result: a Moreno win. His three-inch advantage in both height and reach will be the difference-maker while standing up, which is where we anticipate most of the fight to take place. When the two aren’t having a striking war, Moreno also possesses the better grappling game, which strengthens his case to win.
Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich Betting Pick
This Lewis vs. Pavlovich fight isn’t officially confirmed hence why betting odds are not available. But reports are UFC brass is trying to set up this heavyweight tilt between a crowd favorite (Lewis) and a fast-rising challenger (Pavlovich).
One thing is for sure if this fight happens: someone is getting knocked out. Lewis, of course, is a knockout artist having finished 21 of his 29 career victories. But the same can be said about Pavlovich, who has earned 12 of his 15 career wins by KO or TKO.
Lewis is on the bad end of a cold streak, having lost three of four. However, we’d still take Lewis to defeat Pavlovich, who is lacking a statement win in his resume. Lewis’ experience against the top flight of this class gives us the betting confidence to take him to win straight up.
How To Bet On UFC 277
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