One of the best bets this late in the NBA regular season is on the MVP winner. No player has secured the trophy, and it’s shaping up to be a dash to the finish. For expert betting advice on who takes NBA MVP, stick with us. This advice will get you paid around May or so.
2024 NBA MVP Odds
First things first, let’s take a hard look at the 2024 NBA MVP odds. These are available at the top betting sites for NBA. As it stands, these players are favorites to win the award:
Remember, there’s a new wrinkle for this year's MVP race: games played. The league — facing the heat from “load management” — instituted a rule that a player must partake in at least 65 regular-season games to qualify for the MVP. Players aren’t happy, but it is what it is.
Anyway, as you can see, it’s really a three-player race for MVP — Doncic, Jokic, and SGA. With only a quarter of the season left, we’d be shocked if any other player seriously enters the race. Time is simply running out. With that said, let’s weigh these betting choices more closely.
Best Bet To Win 2024 NBA MVP
The way we see it, there’s a safe bet and a risky bet for NBA MVP winner. Both are good plays, but it’s only worth taking one based on your own risk tolerance. Allow us to make the case for each bet:
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | -150 | -150 | -150 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Luka Doncic | +550 | +550 | +550 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Jayson Tatum | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
Safe Bet
Of course we’re choosing Jokic in this category. After all, he’s the leading candidate with -150 odds. There’s nothing we can say about the Joker that you probably already don’t know, mainly he’s a triple-double machine of the likes the NBA has never seen. Jokic’s average stat line this season is 26.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game. His efficiency numbers are similarly out of this world.
If this MVP award was solely based on play, then Jokic would be a near-lock. However, it’s not. Story matters just as much, and the truth is the Jokic story is tattered at this point. He’s already won two MVP titles and likely would’ve won a third last year if not for voter fatigue that led to Joel Embiid being chosen instead.
Jokic has to play above and beyond to win the MVP — so much so no reasonable argument can be made for someone else. Coming off the All-Star break, this scenario has played out so far. Jokic has recorded three straight triple-doubles and the Nuggets have won each time. Perhaps the NBA champs have “flipped the switch?” Going on a monster run to close out the season is Jokic’s best shot at a third MVP.
So a bet on Jokic makes complete sense here. But since he has minus odds, no secondary bets can be made on this MVP wager— it’s really an all-or-nothing approach that doesn’t pay all that great. That’s why we have advice for bettors wanting to up the risk-reward ratio.
Risky Bet
Contrary to Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander does have the “narrative” and a damn good one at that. Most of all, his Oklahoma City team is the breakout surprise of the 2023-24 NBA campaign. They are in the middle of a five-game winning streak and are now tied atop the Western Conference standings with Minnesota. All this success despite not having made the postseason since 2020 in the bubble.
Make no mistake about it, SGA is a major reason why the Thunder are relevant for the first time since Russell Westbrook left town. Shai is dynamic on the floor, evident by his 2023-24 stat figures. He’s suddenly averaging 31.2 points per game (third-most in the league) and leads the NBA in steals at 2.1 per game.
His quick ascent might feel like an overnight thing, but that’s not really accurate either. Remember last year, SGA finished fifth in MVP voting. Only Embiid, Jokic, Antetokounmpo, and Tatum finished better. So it’s not like the MVP voters haven’t already given him some love.
To take the MVP from under Jokic’s nose, SGA has to keep OKC first out West. Team success is such an important part of this award. It’s not uncommon for MVP to go to the best player in the best team. This is why SGA is the better risky-bet play than Doncic. The Mavericks are barely in playoff contention, little less fighting for home-court advantage like the Thunder are.
Us personally, if we can only make one bet, it would be on Gilgeous-Alexander over Jokic. We really do think voter fatigue is going to screw over Jokic again, plus the upside of SGA is too good from a betting value perspective.
How To Bet On NBA MVP Award?
Betting on the NBA MVP can be had at any one of the underneath bookmakers. Other awards — Defensive Player of the Year or Sixth Man of the Year, for example — are also available for betting. Odds will fluctuate from now until season’s end so you’ll want to get in on these bets sooner rather than later.
The sites below are rated highly in our latest sportsbook reviews. That’s partly because they offer lucrative sign-up bonuses that could bankroll your NBA betting for free. See the table underneath for a list of our favorite offers going on right now.
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