We’re on the cusp of the College Football Playoff national championship game between Georgia and TCU. Before the January 9 clash, read this complete breakdown of the matchup. We have must-make CFP Final betting picks on the moneyline, over/under, and spread!
Georgia vs. TCU Preview
The most-used football betting sites have pegged the Dawgs as historic favorites to win their second consecutive championship. Georgia is currently 13-point favorite over TCU — the biggest spread for a title game since the BCS was created in the late ‘90s. Here are the full odds for reference:
Not that TCU isn’t used to playing the underdog role by now. The program was picked to finish seventh in the conference before the year after going 5-7 in 2021. In the CFP semi-finals, the Horned Frogs pulled off arguably the biggest upset in CFP history. As eight-point underdogs, TCU beat undefeated Michigan to book their ticket to this game. Georgia, meanwhile, had to rally to overcome Ohio State in its semi-finals game. The 14-0 Dawgs looked incredibly beatable, especially on defense which could play to the Frogs' advantage as well cover in our picks below.
Georgia vs. TCU Betting Picks
We’re going to be dropping individual Georgia vs. TCU bets on the over/under, spread, and yes, moneyline. If you’re feeling risky, consider putting each into a three-leg parlay. Here are our picks on all three:
Over/Under 63 Points
|Over 63 points||-110||-110|
|Under 63 points||-110||-110|
Last year’s Georgia team was keyed by a historically elite defensive team. That side of the ball has been the program’s calling card since Kirby Smart took over the program. However, that is not the case this season, especially in the past two games.
The Dawgs are reeling, especially in the secondary. In the SEC title game, LSU passed for more than 500 yards. Against the Buckeyes in the CFP semis, the Bulldogs allowed another 348 yards in the air. In both games combined, opposing quarterbacks torched Georgia to the tune of 850 yards, seven touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a completion percentage of 63. We’ll be upfront and say we expect similar struggles in the Final.
That’s because the strength of this TCU team is its ariel attack. First, there’s Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan. The dual-threat quarterback can extend plays with his legs and create big chances down the field. His weapon of choice? Wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The two busted the Wolverines for six catches, 163 yards, and a touchdown in the CFP semis.
We expect points to fly off the board come the title game. The Duggan-Johnston connection is lethal and the Georgia secondary is shaky right now. And it’s not like the Dawgs struggle to score themselves so we’re wagering on the over here.
Against The Spread
|Georgia spread (-13)||-110||-110|
|TCU spread (+13)||-110||-110|
Around this time a year ago, many wondered whether quarterback Stetson Bennett was the weak link of the Bulldogs. But now? He’s the reason Georgia gutted out the prior win. Georgia rushed only 26 times and used Bennet’s arm to erase a multi-touchdown deficit. We suspect Kirby will want a more balanced offense in the title game but whether he’ll be successful at doing so is the big variable.
TCU’s run defense held up surprisingly well against Michigan’s run-first offense. On 40 attempts, the Wolverines were held to 186 yards on the ground. That was well under Michigan’s season average of 238.9. This allowed the Horned Frogs to make two game-changing pick-sixes that ultimately keyed their upset.
25-year-old Bennett is savvy enough to not make the same mistakes, but we also don’t think he’ll have his way with TCU. We’re done doubting the perpetual underdogs. That’s why we’re betting the Horned Frogs cover the spread. Expect its offense to keep pace with the reigning national champions.
With the way Georgia played a week ago, we think it’s foolish to think they’ll blow off the doors or TCU. But at the same time, its talent level and depth can’t be overlooked either. Even a B+ level performance from the Dawgs is enough to become the first-ever repeat champion of the CFP era.
We’re indeed betting Georgia to win a close game. Bennett has a certain level of clutchness that gives us belief the Dawgs can win any type of football game that transpires — a track meet, a come-from-behind matchup, a defensive slugfest, etc.
How To Watch & Bet 2023 NCAAF Championship Game
If you’re inside the United States, the one network that’ll be carrying the CFP Final is ESPN. The game is set for Monday, January 9 at 7:30 pm EST sharp so mark your calendars now to watch the 2023 NCAAF final between Georgia and TCU. The ESPN channel can also be streamed on services like fuboTV or Hulu + Live TV, for instance.
Last thing before we let you go: there’s no better place to bet on the 2023 NCAAF championship than one of the underneath bookmakers. All of them will offer the full gamut of Georgia-TCU odds, including props that we didn’t cover in this article.
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