We have a championship fight this Saturday. Josh Taylor, the reigning Ring Magazine and WBO junior welterweight titleholder goes up against the former lightweight champion, Teofimo Lopez. We have a complete betting breakdown of the matchup, including our three best bets to make on the Taylor-Lopez fight.
- What: Josh Taylor vs. Teofimo Lopez
- When: Saturday, June 10
- Where: Hulu Theater at MSG in New York City
Taylor vs. Lopez Preview
We’ll get our betting picks soon, but let’s first preview Taylor vs. Lopez at a macro level. When doing so, it’s never a bad idea to start with the tale of the tape. This is Taylor’s natural weight class so he’s the bigger fighter of the two. Taylor owns a two-inch height advantage as well as an inch on the reach.
This marks López third fight at the weight class after shockingly losing to George Kambosos Jr. in late 2021 (the only defeat of his career). Last time out, Lopez won, but he didn’t look good if we’re being honest. Many would argue he stole a victory from Sandor Martin — a fight that ended in split decision in favor of Lopez. Fighting Taylor is a step up in competition for Lopez in a weight class we’d argue he’s still feeling out.
But at the same time, Lopez is coming off his own controversial victory. In early 2022, Taylor defended his undisputed titles against Jack Catterall. Despite hitting the canvas and being outlanded in 11 of 12 rounds, Taylor earned a split decision to the chagrin of most watching. Some even called it “the biggest robbery in British boxing.” Not long after the win, Taylor was stripped of his WBC and WBA titles after skipping out on his two mandatory challengers.
So as you can see, neither fighter is coming in with a ton of momentum here. Perhaps that explains why the odds to win are so close across most major boxing betting sites. As it stands, here are the Taylor-Lopez moneyline odds:
| Boxer |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Taylor | -190 | -260 | -260 |
| Teofimo Lopez | +160 | +200 | +200 |
Taylor vs. Lopez Betting Picks
This title fight is stocked up with betting options, especially once you get into the prop market. After pouring through the over dozen bets, we came away feeling good about three Taylor vs. Lopez betting picks. Our choices are as follows:
Over/Under 10.5 Rounds
Oddsmakers have set the fights over/under at the usual 10.5 rounds. And as you see by the betting lines, the over is a heavy favorite. Bookies believe this one is going the distance:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 rounds | -220 | -220 | -220 |
| Under 10.5 rounds | +180 | +180 | +180 |
Lopez has some clear advantages here. For one, he’s the faster fighter. That speed makes Lopez a strong counter-puncher, a quality that could shine against a usually-aggressive Taylor. Lopez also loves feigning and catching his opponents off guard.
But those strengths suit Lopez better in his previous class. He hasn’t shown much, if any, power since moving up weight. Against a bigger and stronger fighter in Lopez, the challenger’s natural advantages are minimized.
We do believe Taylor has knockout potential in this one. Here’s why: his southpaw style. Remember, Lopez struggled mightily against Martin, another southpaw. And Taylor is more dangerous than Martin ever was. We would not be surprised if Taylor puts him down before that 10.5 round mark. Betting the under is a worthwhile play, especially at plus-money odds.
Moneyline
If you read the above paragraph, you know we have Taylor winning by knockout so taking his moneyline is an obvious choice. But we wanted to take time to bust some myths. There’s a portion of bettors doubting the champion after his last performance, and also having a 16-month layoff in the ring. Both are sticking points worth bringing up too.
For us, we’re not worried. Taylor just had a wealth of experience against high-level fighters in this division that Lopez doesn’t. To us, that’s the bigger thing to harp on rather than Lopez’s inactivity. Simply put, Lopez isn’t fit for this level of completion, even if he’s seven years younger.
We fully expect Taylor’s size to be the difference-maker, not only to hit with more power (and get the knockdown eventually) but also to limit Lopez’s effectiveness on offense. Taylor will start to slow, then turn up the volume and pull away with the victory around round nine or so, which leads us to our next bet.
Round Bet Prop
Alright, this is a complete crapshoot bet — there’s no other way to describe it. The point is to pick exactly when either fighter wins. Since we’re on record picking Taylor, we’ll include his list of betting options below:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor In Round 1 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Taylor In Round 2 | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Taylor In Round 3 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Taylor In Round 4 | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Taylor In Round 5 | +2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Taylor In Round 6 | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Taylor In Round 7 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Taylor In Round 8 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Taylor In Round 9 | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Taylor In Round 10 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Taylor In Round 11 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Taylor In Round 12 | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Taylor In Decision | +150 | +150 | +150 |
As we said earlier, our prediction is for Taylor to pull away late, but also before the 10.5 round. With this rationale, betting on a ninth-round win makes the most sense. It’s a bit of a prayer shot, but one worth taking at these steep odds.
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