We're inching closer and closer to UFC 287 on April 8 in Miami, Florida. The card is highlighted by a highly-anticipated main event featuring Adesanya and Alex Pereira, plus the return of home-crowd favorite, Jorge Masvidal. Before you even think about UFC 287 betting, you have to read this article in full! We have free picks to make on the top-two fights right here.
Pereira vs. Adesanya Betting Pick
Anyone else surprised by the Adensaya-Pereira betting odds? We sure are. As it stands, the top-used betting sites for UFC have pegged Adesanya as the slight favorite to win. This despite the fact that Adesanya has lost all three combat sports fights to Periera. We'll get to those defeats shortly, but let's quickly see where things stand odds-wise:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -140 | -140 | -140 |
| Alex Pereira | +110 | +110 | +110 |
It was only four months ago at UFC 281 that Periera took the middleweight championship from Adesanya with a fifth-round TKO. Though, perhaps why Izzy remains the betting favorite to win is, well, he was on his way to victory on that fateful November night. Adesanaya held a 39-37 advantage on all three scorecards going into the fifth and final round. Then Adesanya got caught with a series of blows from Periera that forced the referee to step in and call it.
It marked the first time that Adesanya has been stopped in his MMA career which began in 2012. However, it's the second-ever finish in his whole fighting career. The other one? Also by Periera in the kickboxing world. Periera viciously knocked out Adensaya in 2017 at Glory of Heroes 7, so much so that Izzy required an oxygen tank to get back to his feet. That stoppage came a year after Periera earned a unanimous decision over Adesnaya in kickboxing again. This is why we're su surprised. We mean, when else has a fighter ever been favored in a fourth fight when he's lost all three before? Never?
We say that without trying to discredit the "Last Stylebender" either. Adesanaya is the more well-rounded fighter inside the octagon. Unless he gets caught again, Adesanya should be able to outpoint Periera. But that's the thing, it's a big if. Periera HAS to know his only path to victory is stopping Periera for a third time so make no mistake about it, he'll be head-hunting at UFC 287. The key to victory for Adesanya will be to stay elusive in the ring and make Periera work for every landed strike.
For us, we're backing Periera with a bet. You have to consider the mental game in this one, and there's no way that Periera isn't in Adesanya's head after being his kryptonite. We'd bet on Periera to get another knockout late in the fight once Adesanya was more worn out.
Burns vs. Masvidal Betting Pick
In the semi-main event, we have Miami's own Masvidal in action, albeit as a heavy — and we mean heavy — underdog. Oddsmakers are giving Masvidal next to no chance beating Burns, as seen below:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | -470 | -470 | -470 |
| Jorge Masvidal | +345 | +345 | +345 |
These two are going in opposite directions in the welterweight rankings. Burns is up to No. 5 after making quick work of Neil Magny earlier this year. Masvidal, on the other hand, is down to No. 11 after three consecutive losses. Masvidal hasn't won a fight since 2019.
The question top of mind for everyone is this: is Masvidal washed up? He is 38 years old and was brutally knocked out (for the first time in his MMA career) by Usman a few years ago. Age and KO-like blows like that change fighters, and we indeed Masvidal changed for the worse. Even with a partisan crowd, we don't see Masvidal winning this fight.
Our money is squarely going on Burns to win this one. Our prediction is via decision, not submission which is Burns' usual calling card. Masvidal has only been submitted twice in his career so we think he can avoid being trapped. Therefore, it might be worth betting the over line AND Burn's moneyline in a parlay. That way, you're maximizing your potential payout because a -470 moneyline by itself isn't going to earn much profit.
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