Want to make money UFC betting this weekend? Of course, you do if you're reading this. We'll keep on reading then because we're giving out three free UFC Fight Night picks on the card's top bouts. There's a lot to cover so let's get right into this money-making advice!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Sunday, November 18
- Where: UFC Apex at Las Vegas, Nevada
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Betting Picks
A pair of middleweights will main event this fight card. As it stands, the top betting sites for UFC have pegged Allen as a commanding favorite to win at -450. We’re not in love with that line, which is why we’re betting the over/under which is at pick ‘em. Here’s how the odds shake out both ways:
|Over 1.5 Rounds||-110||-110||-110|
|Under 1.5 Rounds||-110||-110||-110|
Both fighters are established finishers — and that’s reflected right on the fight poster. Text on the flyer puts Allen at 11 first-round finishes and Craig at 13 wins by submission. This is why the over/under is so low at 1.5 rounds.
Allen is an interesting case study. He’s a grappler at his core with Brazilian jiu-jitsu background. However, he’s really developed his stand-up striking as of late. The Allen we see today is balanced, and that’s a big reason he’s on a five-fight win streak with four submission wins. This impressive run has pushed Allen into the top-10 division rankings.
Craig is No. 13 in those same rankings. He’s also a grappler but with much less effective striking. The thing about Craig is he’s 35 years old now and is beginning to trend down. Craig won his previous fight but lost the two right before it.
We’re pretty sure Allen will win, but it won’t come easy. Craig is tough to put away early, and he’ll be the bigger fighter in this one. We think that helps Craig survive past 1.5 rounds. Take the over here!
Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews Betting Pick
The semi-main event features one of UFC’s most-prized up-and-comers in Morales. No surprise, the 24-year-old prospect is a convincing -300 to win straight up. Again, that’s not exactly dripping with betting value, therefore, our money is also going on the over/under between Morales and Matthews. Here is the latest line:
|Over 1.5 Rounds||-185||-185||-185|
|Under 1.5 Rounds||+155||+155||+155|
This is the low down on Morales: he’s 15-0. What has people really high on Morales' future is his fight style — the kid can literally do it all. He’s trained in Muy Thai and even won international competitions at it. So the striking is there, but Morales has also proven to be a solid grappler. In his last fight, he successfully defended eight takedowns, bringing his defense up to 91 percent.
That takedown defense will be out to the test again versus Matthews, who averages 1.71 takedowns per fight — just slightly more than Morales at 1.66. It’s a little surprising to realize Matthews still isn’t even 30 years old. Surprising because he’s been with the promotion since 2015. Matthews was once a promising prospect like Morales once was, but never quite figured it out.
We think Matthews’ long UFC experience can keep him in the fight long enough to hit the over though. Morales is coming off a decision — only the third in his career. We’re fully behind his hype, but it’ll take more experience to realize it and become a first-round knockout artist. Over is getting our money here, as well.
Jordan Leavitt vs. Chase Hooper Betting Pick
All right, enough with these over/under bets, it’s time to take a shot at a moneyline bet. Here’s a perfect opportunity in this lightweight bout. Unlike the previous fights, oddsmakers have the Hooper vs. Leavitt fight quite close, as seen below:
These two fighters are both big on grappling, and little on striking. Honestly, the two guys are almost carbon copies of one another. The betting favorite, Hooper, is all of 24 years old. Hooper is 12-3 over his career, but all three of those defeats came in the UFC. He’s been hot and cold in the promotion with a 4-3 mark.
Leavitt is a little older at 28. His record is also better at 11-2. You might remember one of those losses came via submission to Paddy Pimblett a year ago. While Leavitt can hang with Hooper at grappling, we do think he is the worse striker of the two. Leavitt averages only 2.66 strikers per minute compared to Hooper’s 5.
This is a toss-up fight, which honestly, makes Leavitt’s betting line attractive. Odds of +165 just seem too high for a fight this even on paper. That’s why we’re taking a flyer on him. Leavitt is more than capable of winning especially given Hooper’s inexperience.
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