ATS: Miami Dolphins (+10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
| Team |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +10.5 (-115) | +10 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Bucaneers | -10.5 (-105) | -10 (-110) |
This is the most lopsided against the spread line of the entire week, per online oddsmakers. Typically, we stay far away from double-digit spreads in the NFL. This is a rare exception, which should tell you how much we love this line. Simply put, Tampa is going to bulldoze Miami at home.
Here’s exactly why: the Dolphins have one of the worst offensive lines in football. They’ve given up the fourth-most sacks this season and got their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hurt and sidelined (which remains the case this week). Backup Jacoby Brissett is running for his life in the pocket and it’s going to get worse against the reigning champions.
Tampa has one of the best front-sevens in the league. Not only at hurrying the opposing quarterback but shutting down the run game, too. This combo will make Miami one-dimensional and add to their ongoing offensive woes. They’ve scored only six offensive touchdowns in four games.
Moreover, the Bucs offense had a rare down day in Week 4. Maybe it was the emotion of Tom Brady returning to Foxborough, maybe it was the rainy conditions, but we fully expect Tampa’s offense to start clicking again versus Miami. When that happens, expect this game to get out of hand in a hurry. Heck, this bet might be a wrap by halftime.
Betting pick: Tampa Bay spread (-10)
ATS: Tennessee Titans (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
| Team | | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | -4 (-110) | -4 (-110) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +4 (-110) | +4 (-110) |
The Titans just lost in overtime to the perceived worst team in the NFL, the Jets. Now they play the newly-perceived worst team in the league, the Jags. If being 0-4 wasn’t bad enough, Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer is in hot water after a video came out of a girl — maybe one-third of his age — dancing on him at a bar. Meyer is (supposedly happily) married, by the way.
We’re actually surprised Tennessee are only four-point favorites. Yes, the New York loss was ugly, but the Titans have valid excuses to fall back on. They were without starting wide receivers AJ Brown and Julio Jones, along with defensive end Bud Dupree and even the punter was out. Despite that, they still soundly outplayed the Jets — running 93 offensive plays for 430 yards.
The bookmakers are greatly overreacting to the Titans' loss. Before it happened, they were projected to be seven-point favorites in this same matchup. So getting them at only four is of pure value to us.
Tennessee covering the spread is our favorite pick of the entire week. Therefore, we’d suggest laying a few extra betting units on this game. Meyer’s nightmare first season in Jacksonville is about to get more creepy on Sunday — even creepier than the video of him making the media rounds right now.
Betting pick: Tennessee spread (-4)
Moneyline: Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
As of publishing time, the betting lines for this game isn't out but we expect it to be near pick 'em. Both these 3-1 teams are absolutely surging and in different ways. The Browns might have the best all-around defense in the entire league. The Bolts are led by Justin Herbert, who’s proving to be the most promising signal-caller drafted in the last three years.
It’s a classic defense versus offense matchup in Los Angeles. Call us old school, but we’re still of the belief that a great defense trumps a great offense more times than not. Our theory will be put to the rest in this matchup, but we’re fully behind the Browns defense.
Here’s where they rank defensively after holding the Vikings to a mere seven points a week ago on the road: Cleveland is second in total defense, third in rush defense, and fifth in pass defense. Much of this success is owed to the front line that can get to the ball carrier — whether it’s the quarterback or running back — at will. In the past two games, this line sacked the quarterback (Justin Fields) nine times in one matchup, then held one of the NFL's best rushers (Dalvin Cook) to less than 40 yards on the ground in the other.
Herbert hasn’t faced this type of relentless pressure all season. But like any great quarterback (yes, even Brady), that pressure will disrupt his play-making ability. We’re taking Cleveland with the upset win.
Betting pick: Cleveland moneyline
How To Bet NFL Week 5 Online?
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