Somehow, someway the College Football Playoff committee decided on a final four for the national championship — Alabama, Michigan, Texas, and Washington. Oh boy, it’s about to get good. You’re going to want to read this for our favorite betting picks on the CFP. We’re confident you’ll be profiting off this advice!
- What: College Football Playoff
- When: Monday, January 1
Alabama vs. Michigan Betting Pick
Many bettors and fans believe this is the de-facto championship game because Michigan has been the best collegiate team from start to finish — cheating controversy be damned. Then there’s Alabama, who snuck into the playoff with a miracle win against Auburn and an upset of two-time-defending champion, Georgia. With these two powerhouses, you can imagine the Bama-Michigan odds are razor close. You’d guess right too. Check out the current odds at top football betting sites:
| Team |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama spread (+1) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Michigan spread (-1) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
As usual, both teams are led by fierce defenses. Statically, the Wolverines are better — but at the same time, their numbers come against lesser competition in the Big Ten. We’ve seen this story all too often: a high-performing team gets exposed when playing an SEC team (last year’s national title game, most notably). We’re not ready to put Michigan in that box, but it doesn’t need to get its offense going to have a chance.
The Wolverines have only been so-so offensively as of late. It’ll be led by running back Blake Corum, who leads the nation with 24 touchdowns. He’s a workhouse but we fear Michigan might get too predictable if it becomes over-reliant on him. Nick Saban is too good of a ball coach to not force Michigan’s quarterback JJ McCarthy to beat them instead.
Speaking of quarterback, that’s been the key to Alabama’s turnaround season (they lost in Week 2). Its signal caller Jalen Milroe was benched in Week 3 but has been on an absolute tear since. In this 11-win streak, Milroe has 28 touchdowns and only five turnovers. Milroe is no longer the weakness, he’s the strength of this Tide attack.
Milroe has the hot hand, which warrants an Alabama bet from us here. We have a feeling they’re more battle-tested than Michigan. Alabama won five games this season when trailing in the second half. Their knack for winning down the stretch could vault them in this matchup that’ll likely be decided by one or two plays. Our money says the Saban-coached team makes those plays and the Harbaugh one doesn’t, as is the case historically.
Texas vs. Washington
Undefeated Washington is the No. 2 seed, while Texas (who beat Bama) is No. 3. Despite that, Texas is a four-point favorite over Washington on the spread, as seen below:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas spread (-4) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Washington spread (+4) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
You can’t help but start with the quarterbacks in this one. Both of them were Heisman Trophy candidates for most of the season. The Cougars’ Michael Penix Jr. is an official Heisman finalist and a real possible winner. Sixth-year senior Penix racked up 4,218 passing yards and 36 touchdowns over the season. Quinn Ewers isn’t a finalist, but make no mistake, the QB is a major reason why the Longhorns have returned to prominence this season. Ewers was efficient with a 71 completion percentage and only six picks.
Ewers hasn’t been asked to win games like Penix mostly because Texas had a formidable run game behind Jonathan Brooks. The running back had 1,138 yards in 10 games before an ACL tear finished his season early. The Longhorns filled in fine, but they’ll have to do even better because Washington will likely turn this game into a shootout.
We’ll be honest, we’re not completely sure who wins this game. However, we do believe it’ll go down to the wire — possibly coming down to who has the ball last. A scenario like this favors the underdog spread of Washington. With Penix and his elite receivers, they can steal this game or at the very least, barely lose. We’ll take the Cougs spread in that case.
Bonus Bet: Alabama vs. Washington
Alright, obviously there’s no betting line for this matchup since nothing is official. But our gut feeling says Washington ekes out a win and gets Bama in the title game. In that event, we’re confident the SEC team would be favored by bookies — by how much is the question.
Still, we think Alabama has the potential to smoke the Cougars, or any other offense it plays. All you have to do is look at the SEC title game. Georgia, with a vaunted offense of its own, couldn’t get going against the Tide’s defense, which beat them up at the line of scrimmage. A PAC-12 team, with smaller players than the SEC, would fare even worse. We’d most likely take the Tide to cover any spread against Washington.
How To Bet On College Football Playoff?
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