The last UFC pay-per-view of 2023 is a banger top to bottom — especially in the main event. You’re going to want to read what our favorite UFC 296 bets are for the top fights. We’re confident these plays will make you more money than lose so keep on reading!
- What: UFC 296
- When: Saturday, December 16
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Colby Covington vs. Leon Edwards Betting Pick
Here. We. Go. This welterweight title fight is a virtual toss-up at the best-used UFC betting sites. As it stands, the champion, Edwards, is a marginal favorite over Covington though. Check out the current moneyline odds:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | -125 | -125 | -125 |
| Colby Covington | -105 | -105 | -105 |
Oh, boy, this fight is one of the more competitive main events you’ll see. Competitive cause both fighters are so different than one another. Edwards is a striker through and through. He famously won the title by KO’ing Kamaru Usman — who beat Covington twice. Edwards also beat Usman in a rematch to prove it was no fluke.
Covington prefers to grapple. This guy is one of the best wrestlers at welterweight. While Edwards did a good job defending against Usman’s grappling, we’d put Covington’s mat skills higher. The champ will be in for a challenge to defend against Covington’s takedowns.
Here’s our biggest question mark pertaining to this bout: has Covington diminished at all? He hasn’t fought in a year and a half, last beating Jorge Masvidal in early 2022. That’s a massive layoff, and he’s almost 36 years old too (his birthday is in February). There’s really no way of telling in what physical state Covington is right now.
For this reason, we’re going to pick Edwards to retain. His takedown defense is respectable and on the feet, he has a huge advantage over Covington. Edwards is also slightly bigger with more range. Ultimately, these advantages swing the fight in favor of the champion.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval Betting Pick
In terms of pure entertainment value, this flyweight title fight could easily steal the show. Both men are allergic to boring fights. The Pantoja-Royval moneyline odds point to another close matchup, as seen below:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | -200 | -200 | -200 |
| Brandon Royval | +165 | +165 | +165 |
Look, we really like Royval. He’s a finishing machine, after all. Thirteen of his 15 career wins have been via stoppage — nine by submission and four by KO. However, does Royval really deserve a title shot? We say no. He’s already lost to the top-two fighters in the division — Brandon Moreno and Pantoja.
That’s right, these two met in August 2021. As you’d expect with two proven grapplers, much of the fight was contested on the ground. Eventually, Pantoja made Royval pay for a mistake in the second round, putting him in rear-naked choke to end the fight early.
We predict another win out of Pantoja. His performance against Moreno last time out really was one for the ages. Pantoja has a chance to run this division for the foreseeable future.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Tony Ferguson Betting Pick
This is classic UFC matchmaking. They pit an exciting fighter they see star potential in (Paddy) against a fan favorite who’s well past his prime (Ferguson). No surprise, the up-and-comer Pimblett is a comfortable betting favorite to win against Ferguson. The odds are as follows:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | -240 | -240 | -240 |
| Tony Ferguson | +200 | +200 | +200 |
This UFC fight is a tad historic. It’s the first time ever a fighter on a six-win streak is going against one on a six-losing streak. Yet, the odds aren’t that lopsided.
One reason for that is, well, Pimblett is quite overrated. Sure, he’s got charisma and KO-stopping power, but he’s raw everywhere else. The last time we saw Pimblett in action, he got a highway robbery decision over 34-year-old Jared Gordon. The hype exceeds the talent for Paddy.
But even then, we don’t see Ferguson winning. He’s been training with David Goggins ahead of this fight, but even an all-time tough guy like Goggins can’t help Ferguson find the fountain of youth he desperately needs. The in-ring damage has simply caught up to Ferguson and we can’t back him in this one.
If we were you, we’d put extra money on this fight. Sure, -240 odds aren’t exactly great, but it’s pretty tame given the losing streak Ferguson is on. Seriously, there’s a slim to no chance he wins — time is only diminishing his skills more. Perhaps up the unit size in this one and go big on Paddy to win.
How To Bet On UFC 296?
There are more than a dozen UFC 296 fights to bet on. Our picks covered the main fights only, but there’s betting value in the undercard ones too. To get a full list of bets, hit one of the bookies below. Not only do you get a wide variety of UFC bets at these sites, but also killer prices. This is why the sites graded high in our newest sportsbook reviews.
Best of all, these sites are also offering big sign-up bonuses worth hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play right now. Either that type of money, all your UFC betting could be completely free — not just for this show, but for other cards too. The table below details the best bonuses available right now. Just choose one and voila, free UFC betting for you!
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