Fade Favorites Like Texas, Florida State In Week 3 College Football Bets

NCAAF Betting Picks Week 3

Need free betting picks for Week 3 of the college football season? You’ll want to read this then. Some of our free betting picks — fading Texas and Florida State — might surprise you!

Against The Spread: UTSA at Texas

Texas spread (-12.5)-110-110
UTSA spread (+12.5)-110-110

Is Texas back? Take a poll of most bettors and the answer seems to be a resounding yes after the Longhorns barely lost to Alabama on Saturday 20-19. We wouldn’t be surprised to see most of the action at top-used football betting sites going on Texas coming off that “morale victory” but we’re not buying into it. Nope, we’re fading the general public and picking UTSA to cover the spread.

We’re pumping the brakes on the Longhorn hype train until we get a better feel of new quarterback Hudson Card. With usual starter Quinn Ewers expected to be out 4-6 weeks with injury, Card is the new big man on campus per se. We know he’s more mobile than Ewers, but lacks the arm talent of his predecessor.

We expect Texas to be run-heavy against UTSA. Not that they won’t have success on the ground, but with that plan, the Longhorns become easier to gameplan against. This should help UTSA get the sneak cover by half a point or so.

UTSA to cover the spread vs. Texas

Over/Under 60 Points: UConn at Michigan

Over 60 points-110-110
Under 60 points-110-110

The big story coming out of Ann Arbor is it’s officially J.J. McCarthy’s team. The dynamic quarterback talent was named the team’s sole starter ahead of upperclassman Cade McNamara. The two had been sharing the quarterbacking duties during camp and the first two games of the season. That is no more as McCarthy is the clear QB1 now, which has clear implications on the Michigan-UConn spread.

McCarthy being under center should push this game into clear over territory. Unlike McNamara, he just has much more big-play potential — particularly with his feet. McCarthy is not only equipped to take off and run, but he can also buy time with his mobility while a pass-catcher breaks open down the field. Last weekend, we saw McCarthy at his best against Hawaii, going 11-for-12 for 229 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Admittedly, Hawaii is a below average mid-major program. But UConn is hardly anything to write home about. The Huskies were blown out at home by 34 points this past week by Syracuse. McCarthy should have zero problems picking up where he left off last time, which vaults the Wolverines to a huge win and over 60 points.

Over 60 points scored in UConn vs. Michigan game

Moneyline: Florida State at Louisville

This is a Friday Night game so make sure to get your moneyline bets on Florida State and Louisville early. Oddsmakers have pegged this page pretty close with the Seminoles getting the very slight advantage:

Florida State-140-140

This analysis might be overly simplistic but it’s worth pointing out: Malik Cunningham will decide who wins this game. He’s the Louisville signal caller and has played two opposite ways so far — each leading to different results. In the season opener, he threw two interceptions and was held under 200 yards of offense in a defeat. But last week? Cunningham shredded UCF to the tune of 322 yards in an upset win. As Cunningham goes, the Cardinals go.

We sense the good Cunningham comes out against Florida State, who are 2-0 for the first time since 2016. The win over LSU was nice, but it may prove to be deceptive later on if the Tigers are proven to be in a rebuild year, which is our hunch. Against a conference foe, we’ll see the “real” Noles and to us, that’s still the underachieving program. We’re picking Louisville to win straight up at home.

Louisville to beat Florida State

Against The Spread: Kansas at Houston

Sticking with this article’s theme of programs off to surprising starts, Kansas — a so-called basketball school — is 2-0 after a shocking win over West Virginia, despite being 14-point underdogs before. The underdog label has stuck because Houston are 10-point favorites here:

Houston spread (-10)-110-110
Kansas (+10)-110-110

We’re not exactly ready to call the Jayhawks for “real” but they’re certainly no pushovers. This team has a good core of players, mainly on offense. Nine starters from a year ago remain in tact. But the star of the show is quarterback Jalen Daniels. He has all the raw skills — mobility and arm strength — to be a top-caliber thrower in the Big 12.

Jayhawks get Houston coming off a bad loss so they’re reeling. An underdog cover for Kansas is completely within reason and what we’re wagering on here.

Kansas to cover the spread vs. Houston

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