The trilogy between Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin goes down on September 17 — and the matchup is ripe with betting opportunities. We have a full breakdown of the fight, plus betting predictions into Canelo vs. Triple G that we think can make you a pretty penny come fight night!
Canelo vs. Triple G Preview
A lot has changed since Canelo and Golovkin’s first fight back in September of 2017. Back then, Canelo had one loss on his resume (to Floyd Mayweather) and Golovkin had zero. At the time, Alvarez was 27 and Golovkin was 35. The fight ended in a draw — perhaps controversially so because many at home scored it in favor of Golovkin. We say this retrospect because the result looms large as we preview Canelo vs. Triple G III.
Canelo is the betting favorite this time around (he was also an underdog in the first two) and that’s largely due to the age differences between the two. Alvarez is in his prime and Triple G is in the twilight of his career. Given the fact, the oddsmakers have put the odds overwhelming in favor of the younger boxer:
Golovkin is not only older, but his inactivity is also a question mark. Since the rematch with Canelo in 2018 — which Golovkin lost, also in controversial fashion — he’s only stepped in the ring four times against other mostly inferior competition, which he cruised to victory against. Canelo has stayed active, fighting up to three times a year. However, in his last test in May, Alvarez suffered his second-ever pro loss to Dmitry Bivol, albeit at light heavyweight.
Canelo has dropped back to his usual middleweight level and will put up his undisputed titles on the line against Golovkin. The third bout will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of a crowd that promises to be partisan to Canelo on Mexican Independence Day weekend.
Canelo vs. Golovkin Over/Under Pick
The best boxing betting sites have set the Canelo-Golovkin over/under at 10.5 rounds — with the over being the strong favorite. Here’s a look at the odds of both options:
|Over 10.5 rounds||-220||-220|
|Under 10.5 rounds||+180||+180|
For what it’s worth, both boxers have predicted stoppages. Canelo told media, “my goal for this fight is to end inside the distance” while Golovkin said he needs to stop Alvarez in order to win. Golovkin is not wrong — especially given the questionable judging of the first two bouts.
We’d be stunned if this gets called before the 12 rounds are complete. That’s because both fighters have impenetrable chins. In 105 combined fights, neither has ever tasted the canvas — nor been in serious danger to do so. Both hit each other with their best shots in the previous two contests and neither flinched.
Though, it’s fair to question if Golovkin’s chin remains the same. Age nor inactivity is kind to chins. You also have the factor that these two genuinely dislike each other. Cause of that, you’d think Alvarez could score the stunning stoppage but we’re not convinced so.
To get the KO, he’ll have to be the aggressor — and that might not be a smart business decision coming off a loss. Canelo has enough star power to withstand one defeat, but two back-to-back? No way. He’ll go for the judges decision instead, which pushes this fight past 10.5 rounds.
Golovkin vs. Alvarez Moneyline Pick
There’s zero reason to lead you on here: Canelo is winning and he’s the no-brainer moneyline pick to make. Father Time is undefeated and we can’t see any scenario where a 40-year-old Golovkin performs better than he did in the first or second fight. Considering none of the previous efforts were enough to score the win for Golovkin, the same applies here.
Not only is Triple G on the decline, but Alvarez is on the incline. He’s actually gotten better since the last 2018 meeting. Canelo has gone 7-1 since in two different divisions and has obliterated most his competition. Yes, the Bivol loss was bad but he simply “bit off more than he could chew” with the weight jump. Middleweight Canelo is his peak form and we expect to see a unanimous decision for the Mexican star come September 18.
Golovkin vs. Canelo Prop Bet
If you agree with our fight prediction — Alvarez wins by decision — then your best-value bet might be found in the prop market. There’s a simple yes-no bet on whether the fight goes the distance. Here’s the odds:
As you can see above, betting yes is actually more valuable here than just betting the over, or worse, Canelo moneyline. And if you’ve bet enough, you understand the importance of maximizing value when wagering. Therefore, we’re jumping on this bet, which should pay so long as Alvarez prevails.
How To Bet Canelo-Golovkin III
To find ALL the Canelo vs. Golovkin bets, head to one of the bookmakers listed underneath. In the table, we’ve included up-to-date sportsbook reviews and details on current sign-up bonus offers. Pour through these to pick the best site to place your fight bets before the bell rings on September 18.