Before we get to that, we do need to visit the UFC betting odds set by the top online sportsbooks. Here are the current moneyline odds for the UFC 272 main event:
Covington vs. Masvidal Betting Pick
We’re quite surprised by the current Convington vs. Masvidal odds. Yes, Covington should be the betting favorite, but not by three-to-one betting odds — that’s way, way too long in our opinion. This fight is closer than oddsmakers are letting on. Allow us to explain how so before giving out our Covington vs. Masvidal betting pick.
Both fighters are coming off not one, but two straight losses to the UFC’s best pound-for-pound fighter, Kamaru Usman. But those losses are completely different. Covington won four of 10 rounds versus Usman, while Masvidal took none out of seven. Worse for Masvidal, he was knocked out cold in the second round of the second bout — in what turned out to be one of the best KOs of all 2021. Surely, those results vs. Usman are factoring into the current lopsided fight odds.
However, we’re here to tell you: that line of thinking is faulty when betting. Styles make fights, as they say. Maybe, just maybe, Covington matches up better with Usman than Masvidal did. Speaking of matchups, we think the strengths of Masvidal and Covington largely cancel out against each other.
This is why: Masvidal has spent the past 18 months training for Usman’s grappling. If he’s ever been ready to handle Covington’s own elite wrestling skills, it’s now. Plus, Covington can’t strike nearly as well as Usman did — so good luck replicating that same highlight-reel knockout. But on that same note, last time out, Usman connected with massive punches to Covington, who absorbed them without faltering. He too has the chin to withstand Masvidal's strikes, which is Gamebred's bread and butter.
The UFC 272 main event will be close. And while we think Covington is winning (more on why soon), we hate — and we mean hate — his current -300 betting line, which doesn’t offer a lot of value. We wouldn’t be opposed to taking a flyer bet on the Masvidal moneyline. Only because his betting line is so off and there’s an attainable path to victory for the man they call Street Jesus.
Masvidal vs. Covington Prop Betting Pick
If you’re like us and of the belief that Covington will be victorious on UFC 272, you need to head to the prop market to find actual betting value. Our favorite Masvidal vs. Covington betting prop is whether this goes the distance or not. It’s a simple yes-or-no bet and here’s how popular sports betting sites are pegging it:
If Covington is winning, it’s going the distance. If Masvidal is winning, it’s not going the distance. It’s really that simple.
Why? Well, Covington generally doesn’t finish opponents — only half of his 16 career wins are by stoppage. Finishes have become less rare at this stage of his career too. Aside from breaking Tyron Woodley's ribs, Covington hasn’t stopped an opponent in more than five years. Likewise, Masvidal isn’t one to get finished easily. Only four of his 15 career losses came by something other than the judge's scorecard.
As for Masvidal, he’s a stand-up specialist. He’s become the most popular UFC fighter not named Conor McGregor from finishing Ben Askren (in five seconds) and Nate Diaz. Masvidal isn’t going to outpoint Covington, a world-class wrestler, for five rounds. No way.
Given our Covington pick, we’re hammering the yes on the fight going the distance. He’ll score enough takedowns during the five rounds to earn the victory. Though, given the bad blood between the two former friends, don't be surprised to see much of the fight fought standing up. Still, as Covington proved versus Usman, he can do this without paying for it with a knockout. Take Covington to win by decision at UFC 272.
How To Bet UFC 272
For a complete list of UFC 272 bets, even beyond the mega Covington-Masvidal main event, visit one of the sportsbooks below. They have odds for every bout, from the prelims to the main card. Other fighters on the UFC 272 card include Greg Hardy, Kevin Holland, Rafael dos Anjos, among others.
But you know what? Your UFC 272 bets could be free if you use a sportsbook sign-up bonus. These deals are paying hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play to first-time players of the site. You can spend the free money as you wish, whether on the UFC or the coming March Madness tournament! Check out the table below to see what bonuses are available right now!