We’re inching toward the 2024 NFL Draft — an event you can fully bet on, by the way. We’ve analyzed the betting market and we’ve come away with three NFL Draft picks to make. Keep on reading to get our free betting advice!
- What: 2024 NFL Draft
- When: April 25-27
- Where: Detroit, Michigan
No. 2 Draft Pick Bet
There’s almost zero mystery regarding the No. 1 pick held by Chicago. They’re almost guaranteed to take quarterback Caleb Williams. However, who the No. 2 draft pick will be is a bigger mystery, especially for bettors. The choice is held by Washington and per the best NFL betting sites, the pick likely comes down to two signal callers:
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | -150 | -150 | -150 |
| Drake Maye | -105 | -105 | -105 |
| JJ McCarthy | +275 | +275 | +275 |
| Caleb Williams | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
The Commanders tipped their hat in March when they trade 2023 starting quarterback, Sam Howell, to the Seahawks. That leaves them with a clear gap at the game’s most important position (Marcus Mariota is on the roster, but no one thinks he’s willingly starting this year). Therefore, the No. 2 choice almost has to be either Daniels or Maye, both potential franchise quarterbacks for a franchise with new owners. We strongly doubt they trade back with such a big need at QB.
Washington, which has new coaches on Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury (offensive coordinator) have been tight-lipped about their decision. But you can guess what they like based on their history: a dual-threat quarterback. This is more of an observation on Kingsbury, who’s worked with Johnny Manziel, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray over the years. Quinn is a defensive-minded coach so his preference is secondary.
Thing is, both Daniels and Maye can run — most modern-day QB’s have to scramble, after all. Daniels’ running ability is more obvious, though. The reigning Heisman winner rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 TDs this past season, on top of 3,812 yards and 40 TDs through the air. There’s been questions about his size since he’s only 210 pounds or so, but that puts him in the ballpark of the aforementioned Murray, who is shorter than Daniels.
Maye, on the other hand, is more prototypical size. He’s 6-foot-4 and 227 pounds. Maye doesn’t scrambled as much as Daniels but there’s zero denying he can take off and run when needed. He flew more under the radar playing at North Carolina but his draft stock has risen due to “upside.”
We see the case for either QB to go at No. 2 but we have a sneaking suspicion Maye gets the nod. He has the most buzz of the two going into the draft and is a “safer” pick than Daniels due to size and playing style (Daniels running style can be dangerous). We’ll take Maye at near plus-money odds.
First Running Back Taken Bet
Who’s going to be the first running back taken in the draft? This is a value bet because the position has such contrasting views. For most teams, the position isn’t valued like it once was as players are treated like “cogs in the wheel” rather than game-changers. Then again, there might be a team like Detroit that used a top-10 pick on Bijan Robinson a year ago. It can go a lot of different ways, but as it stands, these players are frontrunners to be chosen first at the RB position:
| Player | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Benson | +200 | +200 | +200 |
| Jonathon Brooks | +200 | +200 | +200 |
| Jaylen Wright | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| Blake Corum | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | +600 | +600 | +600 |
Most mock drafts don’t have a running back going until the second round this year. But who that player ends up being varies from mock draft to mock draft. Brooks out of Texas is one name in the mix. He’d probably be the consensus pick here if not for tearing his ACL in November. Before that, Benson was lauded for his balance at the position. He’s both powerful and speedy enough to transition well into the NFL.
Brooks loss has been Benson’s gain. This Florida State rusher isn’t as well-rounded, but he has top-end speed. Benson clocked a 4.39 time in the 40-yard dash. Though, the label being put on him is he’s a “system” guy that can’t just be plugged into any team like say a healthy Benson.
We anticipate Brooks being chosen first. There’s less risk since he’s fully healthy, plus in round two, teams are more likely to draft based on need or system rather than best player available. This lends well to picking the speedster out of Florida State.
Mr. Irrelevant Bet
All right, this is a crapshoot bet and we’ll admit that from the jump. However, it’s too of a bet to ignore. The wager comes down to this, which position will make up the Mr. Irrelevant pick— the last one in the entire draft? Here’s the betting choices:
| Position | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Defensive Line | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Offensive Line | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Wide Receiver | +650 | +650 | +650 |
| Cornerback | +650 | +650 | +650 |
We think it’s worth throwing a prayer bet on quarterback due to the success of Brock Purdy, the Mr. Irrelevant pick of 2022 that was a play or two away from winning a Super Bowl last year. He’s given teams hope again that a franchise QB can be found late in the draft a la Tom Brady. Don’t put a lot of money on this crapshoot wager, but it’s worth a shot at these steep odds.
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