Get ready for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest with our favorite betting picks. We’ve analyzed both the 2023 men's and women’s eating competitions and settled on four bets, which cover in depth in this article!
- What: 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
- When: Tuesday, July 4
- Where: Coney Island, New York
- How to watch: ESPN2 and ESPN+ streaming app
Best Bets For 2023 Hot Dog Contest
We start with the sport’s G.O.A.T. Joey Chestnut. He is a whopping -5000 on the moneyline to win the men’s event. That offers little betting value, however, there’s a bevy of prop bets available around Chestnut that do. Let’s begin with those value-rich props to jumpstart our 2023 Hot Dog Contest bets:
Breaking Men’s Record Prop
At this point, Chestnut’s biggest competition is himself. He’s won the title in 15 of the last 16 years and dominated each time. During that stretch, his lowest margin of victory is 10 hot dogs. But his all-time best mark is 76 hot dogs eaten, the record he set in 2021. So this prop centers on whether Chestnut can top that world record or not. Here are the odds on the simple yes-no question:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +225 | +225 | +225 |
| No | -350 | -350 | -350 |
We feel oddsmakers are disrespecting Chestnut. Shouldn’t he be given a little more benefit of the doubt given his worldly accomplishments? Chestnut is in the same category as Michael Jordan or Tom Brady — and unlike them, there’s no noticeable age decline in this “sport.” He’s a few months away from turning 40 years old and our money says Chestnut has still got “it.” Take the plus-money odds and smash Chestnut to eat more than 75 buns and wieners.
Over/Under 71.5 Dogs
Alright, here’s a more “modest” bet. It centers on Chestnut’s over/under total, which the top sports betting sites have set at 71.5, a number well under the world record. The odds here are a tad more even both ways:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 71.5 hot dogs | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Under 71.5 hot dogs | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Look, we’re already on record saying Chestnut will set a new all-time mark so you know that we’re betting over here. We’re only offering this bet in case bettors are more risk-averse. This bet is significantly “safer” than the first one we covered.
However, there are no guarantees either. As we saw in 2022, outside variables can have a negative impact on Chestnut. We’re referring to the animal rights protester that stormed the stage amid last year’s competition. Chestnut choked out this protester holding a sign saying “Expose Smithfield Deathstar” (in reference to Smithfield Foods), but it was mid-competition.
The few seconds of turmoil took Chestnut off his game, leading to a lower output of 63 in that event. So long as that doesn’t happen again, we’re confident the over hits. But that leads us to our next prop bet pick.
Will A Protester Make Stage During Male Competition?
Yes, you can actually bet on whether a protester once again interferes with the men’s competition. Here are the betting lines on either outcome:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | +155 | +155 | +155 |
| No | -220 | -220 | -220 |
We can’t imagine another successful protest. The keyword in the last sentence is successful cause this bet only pays if the protester makes it on stage in front of the TV. We would anticipate that the event has increased security after last year’s fiasco. If so, they’ll stop any attempt from happening before it hits the stage.
Miki Sudo’s Over/Under 43.5 Dogs
There’s also a women’s competition going down. We would offer our outright betting pick on it, but here again, the odds make it too far out of reach. The women’s G.O.A.T. In her own right — Sudo — is a staggering -5000 to win. Skip that lopsided bet though because here over/under of 43.5 hot dogs offers far better odds. Check ‘em out:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 43.5 hot dogs | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Under 43.5 hot dogs | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Let’s quickly cover Sudo’s impressive resume. Since 2014, Sudo has won every single hot dog competition she partook in. The only year she sat out was 2021 due to birthing a child. But she’s never been defeated in this competition — a feat that not even Chestnut can say. Sudo also owns the women’s record for dogs eaten at 48.5, which she set in 2020.
Despite those accomplishments, 43.5 dogs still feels like a high mark. That’s because she’s only once done an over of that during her record-breaking year. In the seven other years she’s won, Sudo’s best is only 41, which occurred in 2027. This is why we’re inclined to bet the under. We fully expect Sudo to dominate the field, but not to that extent.
How to Bet On 2023 Nathan’s Day Hot Dog Eating Contest
For a complete list of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating bets, then you’ll want to hit one of the respected bookmakers below. Any one of these sites — which are top-rated in our latest sportsbook reviews — will offer dozens upon dozens of bets on this event. Of course, the event is fast approaching so you’ll want to get in on this right away since it happens early on Independence Day.
Best of all, if you leverage a lucrative sportsbook bonus, your contest bets could be completely free. Sites are offering bonuses in the hundreds to thousands of dollar range, which is more than enough to bankroll your wagers here. The table below details our favorite deals available right now. Redeem one right away to get free play to gamble with!
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