Two different title fights headline the UFC 292 card — both of which feature competitors with strong striking abilities. At the very least, that dynamic should make UFC 292 highly entertaining. Though, we believe it can be highly profitable too if betting. You’re going to want to keep reading to get our expert UFC betting advice on the card’s very top fights, all of which we’re offering for free.
- What: UFC 292
- When: August 19, 2023
- Where: TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
- How to watch: ESPN+
Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley Betting Picks
The bantamweight title is on the line in the main event. Aljo Sterling, to the chagrin of most of the UFC fanbase, is going for title defense four against the fast-rising O’Malley, a favorite of Dana White and much of the fight fanbase. But fanfare won’t win this fight. Looking at the current betting odds, Sterling is a comfortable favorite to best out O’Malley. Here’s how the best UFC betting sites have it listed:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aljo Sterling | -260 | -260 | -260 |
| Sean O'Malley | +210 | +210 | +210 |
Remember, Sterling didn’t want this fight — at least not this fast. It was only in May when Sterling defeated Henry Cejudo to retain the championship. This bout will not be his third in about 10 months. Sterling wanted time off to rest and heal up injuries, but White all but forced his hand. So fatigue might be a thing going against Sterling here.
O’Malley’s path to victory is certainly in the strike game. He has the advantage here in striking, and honestly, O’Malley’s ability in that department is above most fighters across the promotion. O’Malley is coming off a controversial win against Petr Yan, one which many believed he lost. Still, the fight flashed O’Malley’s punching prowess as he was landing bombs with precision throughout.
Sterling is a solid puncher, big make no mistake about it, wrestling is where his biggest advantage lies. Against Cejudo, a former Olympian at wrestling, Sterling more than hung with him on the mat. Sterling had four takedowns, which ultimately swung the fight in his favor in a close contest.
Here’s an X-factor to look out for: O’Malley’s gas tank. Five rounds will surely test him. Last time out versus Yan, he was noticeably tired in only the second round. That isn’t going to do it against Sterling, who can grind out opponents with that wrestling we mentioned. That’s why we’re picking Sterling to prevail and do so by decision.
Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos Betting Pick
In the co-main event, the strawweight tile is up for grabs. We’re not super in love with the moneyline odds, which currently has the champion as the -310 favorite — not exactly rich in betting value. Therefore, we’re eying the Zhang-Lemos over/under instead. Here are the two betting options:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 rounds | +165 | -260 | -260 |
| Under 3.5 rounds | +210 | +210 | +210 |
Lemos is a worthy opponent. That’s because she’s quite dangerous on the feet. With her Muy Thai background and speed, Lemos is a threat to win by stoppage (11 of her 13 career wins are by such). Let’s not forget, Zhang has been finished before — thanks to a vicious head kick by Rose Namajunas. We’re not saying Lemos/ skill set is on par with Namajunas (it’s not), but she can catch someone off guard similarly.
But it’s not like Zhang can’t let his first fly either. Her first win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk was arguably one of the biggest in-ring wars we’ve seen inside the octagon. If you look at the average strikes landed per minute, Zhang has the advantage over Lemos, 5.79 to 4.51.
But what’s really made Zhang a champion is mixing in wrestling into her game. Zhang has an impressive takedown average of over 90 percent, and has 13 in total in the UFC. That might be her best weapon to minimize Lemos' offense, and more importantly, wear her down. To us, this fight has serious over potential. We predict Zhang wins by unanimous decision so take the over bet.
Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz Betting Pick
We’re really looking forward to this last-minute bantamweight matchup that pits two fighters not that far off from title competition. Compared to the previous two fights, the Munhoz-Vera moneyline is quite close, as seen below:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | -195 | -195 | -195 |
| Pedro Munhoz | +165 | +165 | +165 |
Both men have a common opponent in the title challenger of the night, O’Malley. Vera is the only man to defeat him thanks to a barrage of leg kicks, which injured O’Malley. Then there’s Munhoz, who was threatening to beat O’Malley before he had his eye poked, resulting in a no contest.
Munhoz stepped up on short notice to take this fight, which could very well be to his disadvantage. Not only that, but we sense Munhoz is a little too “orthodox” to hang with Vera. Look, Vera likes to let loose when striking. That style becomes more effective against opponents that are somewhat predictable stand-up guys (with little threat of the takedown). That’s Munhoz to a tee, which means Vera gets our money here. We wouldn’t be surprised if he gets an early stop either.
How To Bet On UFC 292
Ten fights will fill out the UFC 292 card (with the possibility of a few extra thrown in). That means UFC 292 betting opportunities are endless if you factor in props, moneylines, and over/unders available on each one. We recommend one of the bookies below to get all your UFC bets in. All five listed are among our best-rated platforms, according to our unbiased sportsbook reviews.
If you need extra spending money to chase all these bets, then look into the various sportsbook bonuses available from site to site. These sites are doling out hundreds, even thousands, of dollars in free play just for using their site to bet on sports. These free funds could effectively bankroll your UFC bets too. In the table, we’ve earmarked which currently-available deals are our favorite:
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