Another week full of NFL betting opportunities. But before you put any money down, you’d be wise to take our betting advice on Week 6. There are three bets we absolutely love and they're all yours if you keep reading.
Against The Spread: New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Bill Belichick returns to Cleveland — where he first got a head coaching job. It was an ugly ending for the two amidst the franchise moving to Baltimore but neither side has forgotten the failed relationship and what could’ve been. Obviously, a lot has changed since then but we see the Patriots-Browns as a must-bet game going into Week 6. In particular, we love the spread offered at popular NFL betting sites:
Cleveland is skating by until Deshaun Watson is back from suspension with a 2-3 record. But there’s no denying they can run the ball. With a whopping 184 yards per game on the ground, the Browns rank No. 1 overall in the NFL in rushing. Sure, they’ve been forced to run so much with Jacoby Brissett’s inconsistent throwing ability, but they’re still being efficient in doing so.
Starting running back Nick Chubb is up to 593 yards rushing so far. At this rate, he would not only smash Jim Browns’ franchise record for single-season rushing (1,863) but could even threaten for the all-time mark. Amazingly, Chubb is averaging six yards per carry. So again, these numbers aren’t being forced-fed at all. The Browns are really gaining yards at will on the ground.
We fully expect that to continue against New England. That’s because the Pats run defense has been shaky all-season long, giving up 4.8 yards per attempt to opponents. That number is propped up by a shutout performance last weekend against the Lions, a contest that got away quickly. But still, this Patriots' run defense is very leaky and we expect Chubb to continue his historic pace against them.
Mac Jones could return at quarterback for New England, but if not, third-stringer Bailey Zappe could get another shot. While Zappe has played well, this Browns' defense has a superior pass rush that could complicate matters. That only adds to our confidence in picking Cleveland to cover here.
Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
If there’s an underdog team that we like to not just cover, but win straight up, it’s the Dolphins. Miami is currently three-point underdogs at home but we love them to win outright on two conditions — both of which must be met or we rescind this pick.
Condition one: Tua Tagovailoa is under center. His concussion scare was the talk of the NFL a week ago, but the team says all scans have come back positive for Tua. Positive as there are no lingering head issues, which could vault him back to the starting job after missing Week 5.
Condition two: Miami cornerback Xavier Howard also returns to the starter role. A groin injury held him out last weekend and the Dolphins absolutely need him in the lineup versus Minnesota. That’s because he’s a lockdown corner and the Vikings just happen to possess Justin Jefferson, the league-leading receiver in yards so far.
Monitor the injury report closely in this game and maybe hold off on betting on it until game day. Miami really needs both of those players. You saw them last week without them — a double-digit loss to the Jets. That speaks to how much of a difference they make on the field. If both play, we’d confidently back the Dolphins with money here.
Against The Spread: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Only one team is undefeated against the spread this season and that’s the Falcons. Despite that, Atlanta is almost a touchdown underdog in this home matchup. We think that’s another overlook on part of the bookies.
If there’s something we love about Atlanta is its never-say-die mentality. It’s not uncommon to see them down big — as they were last weekend, losing 21-0 to Tampa Bay after three quarters. But the Falcons have a knack to battle back. As a bettor, that’s the exact spirit you want out of a near-touchdown underdog.
Not only that, but you also have a San Francisco team that’s reeling right now in the injury department. Starting players like pass rusher Nick Bosa, safety Jimmie Ward, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley and even kicker Robbie Gould suffered an injury last time out. That adds to an injury list that was already extensive, to begin with. The Niners are deep enough to pull out a road victory, but not by a touchdown or more. We’re betting this game goes down to the wire once more, which benefits the Falcons' cover.
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