We’re officially past the midway point of the 2022 NFL season. If you want to start the second half of the season on the right foot then you need to read this cause we’re giving you three of the best betting picks for Week 10 right here!
Over/Under 48.5 Points: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
|Over 48.5 points||-110||-110|
|Under 48.5 points||-110||-110|
Justin Fields has arrived — or at least it seems to be the case. The sophomore quarterback just set an NFL record last weekend for most rushing yards by a QB (178) in the regular season game. That performances make this Bears-Lions over/under bet particularly intriguing.
Fields might have had his coming out moment last weekend, but he’s steadily been on the rise since October. During the month, Fields ranked 11th in passer rating, seventh in yards per pass, and 20th in passing yards. And yes, he ran too to the tune of 329 yards — most among QBs. So we’d argue the previous performance was no fluke and a sign of things to come because the Lions are a very favorable matchup for the dazzling QB.
Detroit’s defense is either last or very close to last in most major defensive categories: last in passing yards allowed per game (417.3), second in rushing yards surrendered (148.8), and last in points allowed (29.3). We could go on and on but you catch our drift: this defense stinks. Therefore, we’re betting Fields lights them up both passing and rushing.
This game has over written all over it. Not just because of Fields, but this Lions' offense can also score. It’s flown under the radar but Jared Goff is having his own redemption arc in 2022. He’s up to 2,041 yards passing with 14 scores and only seven interceptions. We won’t be surprised if Goff and Fields engage in a scoring shootout in this one.
Against The Spread: Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
We just talked about Fields' off-the-charts play on Sunday, but we’ve neglected to mention who it came against: the Dolphins, who escaped with a three-point victory. Perhaps that’s why the 6-3 Miami team is only four-point favorites over Cleveland despite the Phins being home:
|Miami spread (-4)||-110||-110|
|Cleveland spread (+4)||-110||-110|
To be fair, another reason for the Browns' low spread is they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this meeting. Cleveland was off the first weekend of November. The team is 3-5 and treading water until Deshaun Watson is allowed back on the field later this month.
One thing is for sure: the Browns will lean heavily into their run game to keep pace with the Dolphins high-flying offense. Cleveland is third in the NFL in rushing yards per game behind Chicago and Baltimore. But here’s the thing: Miami has beaten both those teams by three and four points, respectively.
But unlike the Bears and Ravens, the Browns don’t do their rushing damage with its quarterback. Stopping rushing quarterbacks has been the Dolphins' big struggle (Lamar Jackson’s season-high rushing game came in this one too). Therefore, we actually expect Miami’s defense to hold strong. That, combined with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s NFL-leading passer rating, and we anticipate the Dolphins rolling to victory. Bet on them to cover the spread here!
Against The Spread: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
|San Francisco spread (-7.5)||-110||-110|
|LA Chargers spread (+7.5)||-110||-110|
Does anyone else feel the best NFL betting sites have this LA-San Francisco spread a little too uneven? The 49ers are whole 7.5-point favorites at home right now.
Look, the Chargers admittedly have a suspect defense. Before a good performance last weekend versus the almighty Falcons (sarcasm detected), the Bolts' defense ranked next to worst in the NFL in points allowed (behind the aforementioned Lions only). You’d think San Francisco would be able to light them up but signal-caller Jimmy Garoppolo is notoriously hot and cold. Our inclining says Jimmy G leaves points on the table in this one.
In doing so, he lets the Chargers hang around. Given the offensive talent LA has — Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and perhaps the returning Keenan Allen — that’s a precarious position to be in. Our money says this game goes down to the wire and if so, Los Angeles covering the spread is very likely.
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