Wed 03/08/2016 - 20:17 EDT

EPL Top Goal Scorer

EPL Top Goal Scorer

Last season saw Tottenham and England’s Harry Kane win the Golden Boot as he was English Premier League top scorer with 25 goals. Can the Spurs man hold off dozens of potential goalscoring greats to do it again?

Premier League Goalscorers

By Paul Seaton

Last season's race for the Golden Boot in the English Premier League started off being wide open before Jamie Vardy took over. However, from the mid-point of the season, Leicester's more defensive style restricted the number of opportunities for Vardy and Tottenham's Harry Kane stood up. His 25 goals for The Lilywhites were just enough for him to pip Sergio Aguero (24 for Manchester City) and Vardy (24 for Leicester City) to the trophy. 

While Vardy and Leicester earned the ultimate honor of becoming Premier League Champions, Kane should be applauded for stealing the top goalscoring honor in 2015/2016. It was his second season, and one that some observers thought would trip him up. Instead, after a comparatively slow start, Kane thrived, and his brand of quick-but-deadly method finishing moves was a joy to behold. Here are his goals from last season: 

What will happen in 2016/17? We've decided to break our analysis down into three groups, from which we've picked a likely star and their odds via Bovada. When it comes to goalscorers, you should look at your investments based on three main factors. These are: 

  • How often will my pick get chosen to play? Broadly speaking, ask yourself whether they are first choice for their side and also if they're injury prone? 
  • Do they take penalties? This is a crucial point and each of Kane, Vardy and Aguero scored either four or five penalties last season. 
  • Are they the sole striker? Although not crucial, this helps too. Watford are a great example of why. Ighalo and Deeney scored 29 goals between them, but Ighalo outscored Deeney without taking penalties. Neither were ever a good bet because of that. 

Leading Contenders 

There's no doubt that Kane (+500) is the man to beat. Vardy (+1200) will do well again, but without Kante, Leicester will create fewer chances, and Riyad Mahrez may well be wearing a red shirt instead of blue before September.

Aguero (+350) will likely score stacks of goals under Pep Guardiola, but we're betting on the stocky Argentinian to be injured at some point. Pep is a manager who needs his players all to be super-fit at all times, too, so won't rush back Aguero as Pellegrini did. Should he look to other options, we think he may well utilize another striker on his books, which brings us to...

The Chasing Pack 

Iheanacho

Clubs with multiple striking options often let you down. Two clubs who may well do this in 2016/17 are Liverpool and Chelsea. Chelsea could have Batshuayi (+1200), Lukaku currently +1200 but for Everton), Hazard (+5000) and Costa (+1200)  all going for goals, with only 50 games likely to be split between them.

Liverpool's manager Jurgen Klopp doesn't fully support Daniel Sturridge (+2000), and will probably use other options like Firmino (+5000) and Mane (+4000) to supplement the gifted-yet-flimsy finisher. Of the striking options who could step it up to be a main striker, it is the gifted Nigerian Kelechi Iheanacho (+4000) who could be the best value. 

Here he is doing what he does best. He fits the Guardiola model perfectly

The Outsiders 

martial

Of the players getting less coverage, three of last year's middle runners have high hopes of exceeding their targets. Marko Arnautovic signed a new contract for Stoke and is available at +8000.

Sadio Mane may be Liverpool's savior and is well priced at +4000, but it is the Frenchman Anthony Martial (+3300) who piques our interest.

The young man has it all in his locker and if Wayne Rooney drops in fitness or suffers an injury, the combination of Zlatan Ibrahimovic behind Martial is tantalizing. Last season, all of our featured outsiders scored 11 times. It's not a huge leap to build on that in 2016/17, as you can see from Martial's highlight reel below. 

While some markets benefit from laying and cashing out, the Top Goalscorer is a great market for picking a few winners from the kick-off. Each of our picks offer something different, but as a collective we think they won't let you down. Back of the net! 

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