Don’t even think about UFC betting this weekend until you read this all the way through. We’ve analyzed the very top UFC Fight Night bouts and have settled on three wagers to make, including on the main event between Shevchenko and Grasso!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
- When: September 16, 2023
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Betting Pick
You thought Israel Adesanya losing to Sean Strickland was the biggest upset title loss in UFC history? You’d be wrong because, based on betting odds alone, Grasso defeating Shevchenko to capture the women’s flyweight championship earlier this year was the biggest. The two’s rematch will headline this card. Shevchenko is still the favorite, but not -1200 like last time. Per the top betting sites for UFC, here’s how the Shevchenko-Grasso moneyline odds are shaking out:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | -165 | -165 | -165 |
| Alexa Grasso | +135 | +135 | +135 |
If you’re picking between this fight, the first question you need to ask yourself is this: what is Shevchenko’s current state? The keyword is current. As we know, Shevchenko is arguably the second-greatest women’s fighter ever. Until that Grasso loss, she hadn’t been defeated since 2017. At 35 years old, she’s not exactly in her prime. But even Shevchenko at 85 or so percent of her peak capacity is still a dangerous, dangerous fighter.
Or you can be in the camp that believes Shevchenko is declining even more rapidly than that. If we run back the first meeting between these two, it was an even fight. Grasso was exchanging strikes with Shevchenko, who normally pummels women when standing up. Then Shevchenko threw a leg kick that missed and Grasso used that to put her into a chokehold that forced the tap out.
So it’s not like it was a super flukey outcome. It was teetering toward a split decision — which ironically, is how Shevchenko won the fight beforehand against Taila Santos. Many people believe Shevchenko actually lost that fight though she got the official decision. Calling Shevchenko “washed” wouldn’t be accurate, but her recent outings are enough to wonder about her in-ring fall-off.
We’re going to pick Grasso to win here in a final “passing the torch” moment. Our belief is she’s the better striker right now and is going to take it to Shevchenko — especially since it’s a show built around her. We mean, this is happening Mexican Independence Day weekend — a typical weekend when Canelo Alvarez fights in boxing. That’s not a coincidence because UFC wants Grasso to be the next face of their women’s division. Expect a huge night out of Grasso come Saturday.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland Betting Pick
This fight has all the makings of a Fight of the Night contender given both fighters are extremely exciting on the feet. The moneyline is close (Maddalena is a slight favorite), maybe a little close for comfort. That’s why we’re putting money on the Maddalena-Holland over/under instead. Here’s where it stands:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 rounds | +110 | +110 | +110 |
| Under 2.5 rounds | -140 | -140 | -140 |
Maddalena is one of the UFC’s fastest-rising stars. Ever since breaking into the company with the Contenders Series, he’s flashed star potential — winning all six of his UFC fights and doing so impressively. But admittedly, none of Maddalena’s opponents up to this point have been notable. Welp, Holland is notable and it’s the biggest challenge of Maddalena’s career by far.
Holland is going to stand up and strike right back with Maddalena. Not only does Holland have heavy hands, but more than anything else, he has precision behind his strikes. That could be a dangerous combo given he also has an eight-inch reach advantage over Maddalena. But expect Maddalena to make up for those disadvantages by being the more high-volume puncher. Believe us, he won’t stop bringing the pressure when standing up.
This is the type of fight that lends itself to going the distance. Both guys are tough and can take the punishment almost as good as they can deal it. We’re not sure who wins, but we’re confident it goes the full three rounds so bet the over.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrance Mitchell Betting Pick
Here again, we’re going over/under bet with the Rosas vs. Mitchell bout. That’s because the moneyline has zero betting value with Rosas being a -800 favorite to win. Here’s how the bookies have the over/under line marked:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 rounds | +220 | +220 | +220 |
| Under 1.5 rounds | -275 | -275 | -275 |
Rosas is another rising star in the UFC being as he’s barely old enough to smoke a cigarette (just turned 19 years old) though coming off a loss. Honestly, he’s being fed a pretty middling fighter in Mitchell in matchmaking that feels like a “rebound win.” That’s what it should be given Rosas should be able to take him down at will. In three UFC fights, Rosas has eight takedowns so it’s his bread and butter.
Under is the clear bet here. Mitchell is 14 years older than Rosas but has been an MMA journeyman more or less his whole tenure. Bank on a quick finish here.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?
Any and all UFC Fight Night betting can be done at one or the below sportsbooks. There are 10 fights on the entire card and they’re all available for betting in the usual foray (moneylines, over/unders, props, etc.). The five sites you see listed in the table are there for a reason — because they are rated high in our latest sportsbook reviews.
What’s great is each of these sportsbooks also offers lucrative sign-up bonuses. These deals are worth hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play — money that could fund your UFC betting. Our favorite offers are featured below for your convenience.
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