Just about no one anticipated this Cinderella story out of No. 43-ranked Karolina Muchova. But she now faces her biggest test yet — top-ranked Iga Swiatek. You might not believe this, but we think the underdog Muchova is a worthy bet in the French Open women’s final. Keep reading to get our betting rationale on this.
- What: 2023 French Open Finals
- Who: Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova
- Where: Roland Garros at Paris, France
Preview Of 2023 French Open Finals
Just who the heck is Muchova anyway? That’s probably the best way to begin this preview of the women’s French Open finale since many casual bettors are writing her off on name recognition alone. We wouldn’t do that if we were you.
Here’s why: Muchova is not nearly as fluky as you think. Anyone who saw her thrilling win in the semis over No. 2-ranked Aryna Sabalenka would agree. In the third set, Muchova saved a match point against the heavily-favored Sabelenka, then rallied from 2-5 down in the third set to win 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 7-5. This was Sabelenka’s first Grand Slam loss in 13 tries this season. With the win, Muchova becomes the fourth-lowest-ranked women’s finalist in French Open history.
Of course, one win isn’t enough to prove she’s the real deal, even if she did win 20 of the last 24 points to do so. But here’s something else to consider, against the current top-three-ranked women’s players (a group that includes Jessica Pegula), Muchova is now a perfect 5-0. That includes a prior win against Swiatek in their only meeting back in 2019 in Prague. That was on a hard court, but still, Muchova likely isn’t shaking in her shoes from facing Swiatek.
Swiatek is forging her own history, though. At 22 (which she turned last week), she’s now the youngest player to reach three French Open finals since Monica Seles in 1992. Swiatek was victorious two previous times in 2020 and 2022. While she’s also won the US Open, make no mistake, Swiatek excels at Roland Garros more than any other major.
This French Open dominance is why Swiatek is the heavy — and we mean heavy — favorite to beat Muchova. The moneyline odds are available at top betting sites for tennis, and it’s one of the most lopsided lines in recent memory. Here’s how oddsmakers have pegged each player to win:
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | -900 | -900 | -900 |
| Karolina Muchova | +600 | +600 | +600 |
2023 French Open Final Betting Picks
There’s a slew of French Open Final bets available across bookmakers. However, we’re staking our money on two of ‘em. Here’s who we’re taking and why:
Moneyline
There’s just about zero betting value with Swiatek. We mean, -900 odds aren’t going to get anyone paid unless you have huge stacks of money ready to deploy. And even then, the risk-reward of this bet isn't worthwhile. So we will not be betting on Swiatek, and that’s more because of the lack of betting value than us actually believing she won’t win.
Muchova is absolutely worth putting money on. The good thing about having +600 odds is you don’t need a lot of money on Muchova to make a killing. It’s a low-risk, high-reward bet — the opposite of Swiatek.
And honestly, it’s not far-fetched to think Muchova could legit win Saturday, betting value be damned. Talent has never been the problem with Muchova. She has an abundance of it. The smooth strokes, sneaky-good power, and movement are all upper-echelon level. It’s been injuries that have slowed her down more than anything else.
Welp, Muchova is healthy and should be playing almost carefree on Saturday as the big underdog. Swiatek has not be secretive about her issues controlling her nerves. So yes, all these factors make Muchova a super enticing bet at +600. Putting a small stake on the massive underdog is so worth it here.
Games Spread
If you can’t talk yourself into betting on Muchova and one of the biggest upsets in women’s French History from happening, then here’s another bet for you on the game spread. It’s set at -5.5 and has a lot more fairer odds. Here are your two betting options:
| Player | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiatek spread (-5.5) | -135 | -135 | -135 |
| Muchova spread (+5.5) | +110 | +110 | +110 |
We argued Muchova is capable of beating Swiatek so you can probably guess what we think here: yes, Muchova is covering the spread. Muchova has an all-court game that has to be respected. The variety in her shots could challenge Swiatek and at the very least, keep this game competitive.
And remember, Swiatek looked a tad shoddy in the semis. She saved a set point in the second-set tiebreak against relatively unknown Haddad Maia. Swiatek’s eight games against Haddad marked the most she lost in her six matches so far in this tourney. So all things considered, we expect a tight game and for Muchova to cover the spread.
How To Bet On 2023 French Open Final?
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