We’re under two months away from the full-on return of the 2022-23 NFL regular season. This lull period before training camp begins is the perfect time to look ahead toward betting props for 2022 league leaders in different statistical categories. Keep reading on for our best bets on which players will lead the NFL in passing, rushing, and receiving!
Passing Yards Leader Prop Pick
Let’s start with the quarterbacks (don’t we always?). The league is full of elite QBs from the old-timers (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford) to the newcomers (Allen, Herbert, Mahomes). But which single QB will end the 2022 season with the most passing yards? The most popular online sportsbooks have pegged the following players with the best odds at leading the league in throwing:
Herbert is the odds-on favorite but he’s NOT our betting pick. It seems like everyone is drinking the Chargers’ Kool-Aid. Sure, Herbert has ascended into elite status and Los Angeles has surrounded him with an abundance of talent, throughout the defense and the offensive line, which was a struggle a year ago. But that could actually be a detriment for Herbert’s individual stats total.
Hear us out: a year ago, Herbert HAD to throw it. The Bolts' defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed, which gave them time and deficits to make up for by airing it out. In 2022, we don’t imagine nearly the same amount of defensive issues for LA. This year, the team might be playing with the lead more often, which could also sway them to run the ball more with Austin Ekeler, who is also elite at his own position. That’s why we’re disqualifying Herbert, not because we doubt his arm talent (trust us, it’s elite).
If not Herbert, then who? Welp, how about Tom Brady — ya know, the all-time greatest player ever, who also led the league in passing a year ago (a whopping 5,316 yards)? Yes, Brady is our betting pick in what may be his final NFL season.
Brady IS that Tampa team. Unlike the Chargers, the Bucs have zero run game. Leonard Fournette is the penciled-in starter, but he likely won’t last a full 17-game season with his injury history. After him, there are question marks about unproven backups like Keshawn Vaughn and Rachaad White. Look for the Bucs to lean on the soon-to-be 45-year-old Brady plenty this looming season. In his swan song, Brady will be his usual unstoppable self.
Rushing Yards Leader Prop Pick
This prop is a lot more wide-open than the previous wager. That’s because injuries are so much more common with running backs than quarterbacks. Regardless, these players are currently favored most to end the season with the most yards gained on the ground, per top-used NFL betting sites:
Like the passing-leader prop, the best approach here is to determine which team is most reliant on its run game? The first two teams that come to mind are the Colts and Titans — which not surprisingly possess the two betting favorites, Taylor and Henry, respectively.
Now that we’ve narrowed it down to both as solid betting options, the next question to ask is which of the two will be durable enough to endure the grueling season? “King Henry” is coming off a somewhat serious foot injury which forced him out of action for half of the 2021 campaign. The 28-year-old doesn’t have a long injury history besides that, but it’s fair to question whether his “mileage” has finally caught up to him. The man has well over 1,000 carries since 2018.
Taylor, on the other hand, has much fresher legs. He’s only 23 years old and has missed just one game during his two-year career. In both seasons, Taylor has been an absolute bell cow for Indianapolis. Taylor has 564 rushes in that span — for a gaudy average of 5.3 yards per attempt. We see that pace continuing in 2022, which makes Taylor the best bet to make in this category.
Davante Adams — Over/Under 10.5 Touchdowns Prop
Let’s switch it up for the wide receivers. Rather than a bet on the entire group, let’s hone in on one player — Adams, the newest Raider. In his first season without Rodgers, oddsmakers have set Adams' over/under touchdown mark at a “modest” 10.5:
|Over 10.5 TDs||-110||-110|
|Under 10.5 TDs||-110||-110|
In the six seasons since Adams broke out as a star (starting in 2016), he’s eclipsed 10.5 touchdowns on four occasions. We’re betting that happens again in 2022.
Here’s why: there will be a small adjustment period between Adams and his new Las Vegas signal caller, Derek Carr. That’s because the two were teammates at Fresno State, where they lit the collegiate world ablaze. Carr is a step down from Rodgers, but he’s no slouch either — evident by his 4,804 passing yards a year ago. Expect Adams to continue his league domination wearing the silver and black.
How To Bet On 2022 NFL Props?
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