2022 Sugar Bowl Preview
Before we tell you EXACTLY how to pick apart the best online sportsbooks to profit off this game, we must preview the 2022 Sugar Bowl at-large. The Rebels and Bears feel like polar opposites. One was a preseason darling (Ole Miss) and the other was far from it (Baylor, of course). One is defensive-first (the Bears), the other is all about the high-octane offense (the Rebs). It all sets up for an anything-can-happen bowl game, that's for sure.
How Baylor even reached it here is almost too hard to believe. A season ago, the school finished 2-7. A two-win season almost magically turned into a two-loss campaign, as the Bears went 11-2 to win the Big 12. Down the stretch, they beat Oklahoma — the usual conference juggernaut — and Oklahoma State in the conference title game with a backup quarterback under center (the starter was injured early on that game).
Ole Miss run has been less magical, but not necessarily less spectacular. As most expected all along, the Rebels were the third-best team in the SEC after Alabama and Georgia. In only year two under Lane Kiffin, this was always supposed to be the "launching pad" year anyway before really contending for an SEC in the coming seasons. Welp, that it was as Mississippi went 10-2 on the back of an elite offense (more on this shortly).
Over/Under 55 Points: Baylor vs. Ole Miss
|Over 55 Points||-110||-110|
|Under 55 Points||-110||-110|
Let's talk more about the Rebs' high-flying offense because it's the X-factor in whether this Baylor-Ole Miss game goes over or not. Nationally, Ole Miss ranks fifth in yards per game at 506.7, which resulted in a scoring average of just 36 points per game. Senior quarterback Matt Corral is the key cog of the offense after putting up 3,936 total yards and 31 total touchdowns this season. The Sugar Bowl will be his final hoorah for the program as he's NFL Draft-bound.
In comparison, the Bears' offense is much more "tame" but it's not unproductive by any means. With 1,429 yards on the ground, tailback Abram Smith led the entire Big 12 conference in rushing. The crazy part? Smith played at linebacker a season ago. Wild indeed, but Baylor leans on Smith to seize control of the game AND the time of possession before its rested defense can step up. At 19.2 points allowed per game, the Bears had the 14th-stingiest defense in the country.
Despite each team having a Heisman-like player on offense, it hasn't resulted in many overs as of late. The recent betting trends are rather shocking. Ole Miss has gone under seven straight games, while Baylor is 0-5-1 on overs in a similar span. You have to ride that trend to the bank, don't you? We are because that trend is too real to look the other way at.
Moneyline: Ole Miss vs. Baylor
Bookies for football betting are rarely ever "stumped" on who wins NCAAF games, yet we find ourselves in that position here. The Baylor-Ole Miss moneyline is at pick 'em — the only bowl game with the toss-up distinction. See for yourself:
We're taking the Bears and our conviction level is pretty high despite the pick 'em betting line. Why? Well, Ole Miss has serious problems stopping opposing run games. That's a mismatch we're confident that Baylor can exploit to victory. During the season, the Rebels gave up a whopping 182 rushing yards per game — a figure that ranked 101th nationally. You don't magically fix that at the end of the season.
You also don't fix undisciplined play either. Get this, the Rebs were penalized for 77.8 yards per game in 2021. That's almost the entire length of the field, which put Ole Miss as the fourth-most disciplined team in all of FBS. Sloppy play like that won't do them any favors in the Sugar Bowl, believe us.
So have conviction and take the Bears here. They've stunned naysayers time after time again this season so it's not past them beating the "bigger and badder" SEC team. Head coach Dave Arana is building something special down there in Waco and we're capitalizing off it with a moneyline bet!
How To Bet The 2022 Sugar Bowl?
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