Don’t bet on UFC 295 until you read this article from tip to bottom. That’s because we’ve analyzed the entire card and settled on three must-make UFC 295 picks. Keep reading to get them!
- What: UFC 295
- Where: Madison Square Garden
- When: Saturday, November 11
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira Betting Pick
The vacant light heavyweight belt is on the line in this one — a bout that replaced Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic as the MSG main event. Like the fight it replaced, this is a legacy fight of sorts and it’s expected to be pretty even. Here’s the Prochazka-Pereira moneyline available at the best UFC betting sites:
This is why legacies are on the line. Pereira has a chance to become a two-division champ in the UFC despite only having six career MMA fights. You add in his esteemed kickboxing career, and he has a real case for one of the best combat sports athletes of his generation with a title win. Then there’s Prochazka, who was the champion but was forced to vacate the title due to injury.
That injury is the unknown variable of this fight. A shoulder injury did Prochazka in and he hasn’t fought because of it since June 2022 — almost a year and a half ago now. Doctors and even Dana White said it’s one of the worst shoulder injuries in UFC history. If that’s true, then how will that affect him in this one? No one knows for sure, but it’s worth worrying about.
As for the matchup, we should see a pair of strikers duke it out. Prochazka fights Muy Thai, while Pereira is a kickboxing legend. Who has the edge? Both certainly have KO power. Twenty-five of Prochazka’s 29 career wins have been through knockout, while Pereira has one of the better left hooks you’ll ever see.
Here’s the difference between the two: Prochazka is way more hit-able. Last time out, Glover Texeira landed 98-of-145 significant strikes on him. If not for a Hail-Mary submission, Texeira would’ve beaten Prochazka for the title. To us, Pereira only needs one good look to end this. Prochazka keeps his hands low so we’re confident that look will present itself. Our prediction is Pereira stops him.
The knock on Periera has always been can he stop the takedown since he’s new to MMA? This is the perfect matchup because Prochazka hardly goes for takedowns. With this fight on the feet, it’s a perfect matchup for Periera to pull out the win.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Betting Pick
With Jones out of the main event due to injury, we need to crown a new interim heavyweight champion. That’s what this fight is for. Here again, we have a toss-up fight with both at near-equal moneyline odds. Honestly, it’s a little too close to call. That’s why we’re betting the Pavlovich-Aspinall over/under instead. It’s set pretty low at 1.5 rounds for a five-rounder. Here’s the latest odds:
|Over 1.5 Rounds||+175||+175||+175|
|Under 1.5 Rounds||-215||-215||-215|
You saw the odds, the under is a clear betting favorite. That makes sense because these are two heavyweights that are extremely dangerous. Pavlovich is the more explosive one, however. He’s a boxer and an impressive one at that with lethal speed and power. Pavlovich has 18 wins in his career, 15 by KO. Impressively, he’s finished eight straight opponents in round one.
Aspinall is also a finisher. None of his 13 career wins have been by decision. None! The thing is, Aspinall isn’t a pure striker like Pavlovich. He has pretty respectable grappling skills with a 3.7 takedown average (Pavlovich is at zero for reference). Honestly, Aspinall would be smart to ground and pound Pavlovich. Wearing him out could lessen his one-punch power.
We’re going against the grain and saying this goes over 1.5 rounds. Aspinall’s takedown ability is the difference-maker. He knows the longer this fight goes, the more of an advantage he has. We expect Aspinall’s game plan to help push this into over territory.
Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern Betting Pick
This is a solid strawweight fight to round out the card. It’s not nearly as close as the previous two fights, but the Andrade-Dern moneyline isn’t lopsided by any stretch. Here’s how the lines shake out both ways:
This is a clash of styles. Andrade, a former world champion, loves to stand up and swing. She averages an impressive 6.7 strikes per minute. Then there’s Dern, who is a ground specialist. The issue for her is her takedown ability isn’t actually any good so she can struggle to even get her opponent in a vulnerable position on the ground to begin with.
Here’s what influenced our pick: recent performances. Andrade is on a three-fight losing skid, all by finish. Dern is 13-3 overall, but 2-2 in her most recent outings. It’s tough to pick Andrade given that streak so Dern gets our money in this one.
How To Bet On UFC 295?
If you want to bet on UFC 295, we recommend starting with one of the bookmakers listed below. There are over a dozen bouts on the card, all of which can be wagered on at these sites. Not only is the usual assortment of moneyline and over/under lines available but the prop betting market is particularly packed.
Reference the table if you need help deciding where to actually bet. We’ve included unbiased sportsbook reviews, as well as details on current sign-up bonuses. Both will help you choose where’s the best place to park your money at.