We’re now into the second quarter of the 2023 NFL season. That’s given us enough “tape” on teams across the league to make our Week 5 betting picks. Stick with us if you want to come up profitable this week in the NFL.
Moneyline: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
We’re actually a little surprised by the Houston-Atlanta moneyline. Surprised because the Falcons are betting favorites to win after a 23-7 loss in London, while the Texans have won two in a row. The teams are trending in opposite directions as you can see. Still, Atlanta is being favored by top-used NFL betting sites. Here’s the current odds:
| Team |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | -140 | -140 | -140 |
| Houston | +115 | +115 | +115 |
One of the talks of the league is the quick emergence of No. 2 draft pick CJ Stroud. It’s early, but Houston might’ve just found their quarterback of the future. Stroud is lighting the league on fire already. He’s up to 1,212 yards passing — second-most in NFL history for a rookie four games into his career (only Cam Newton was better). Even better, Stroud’s touchdown to interception ratio is six to zero.
These aren’t garbage-time numbers either. Stroud and company upset Jacksonville on the road in Week 3, then clobbered Pittsburgh 30-6 this past weekend. The Texans aren’t bottom feeders anymore, which is why the moneyline surprised us.
While Houston has found their QB, Atlanta has question marks. Serious question marks. Second-year signal caller Desmond Ridder has been underwhelming, to say the least. In eight career starts, Ridder has failed to pass over 200 yards four times. The Ridder-led offense has put up just 13 points in the last two weeks. The quarterback is the weak link too because the Falcons have playmakers in pass-catchers London Drake and Kyle Pitts, plus running back Bijan Robinson.
Our pick here is pretty simple: we believe Stroud is good and that Ridder is bad. Therefore, taking the underdogs is worth the risk here. Texans are trending up and we’ll gladly ride that.
Over/Under 44.5 Points: Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Oddsmakers aren’t very high on offense in this one. As it stands, the Bengals and Cardinals over/under is one of the lowest in all of Week 5. The line is as follows:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 44.5 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 44.5 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Is it time for Cincinnati to hit panic mode? They’re 1-3 and Joe Burrow — the quarterback they enriched with $200-plus million one month ago — looks like a shell of himself. Maybe it’s a calf injury, maybe it’s not, but Burrow is playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league after one month. The team has put up just 59 points in four games, and we don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel anywhere.
Then there’s Arizona, who aren't nearly as bad as people thought they were. Nonetheless, this team still isn’t good. Facing an abysmal 1-4 start, we expect the Bengals' defense to clamp down to make up for the Burrow-led offense. This should be a bowling-shoe ugly game with small amounts of offense. Under is the play here.
Against The Spread: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Oh, boy, this one is going to be good. Two of the most popular teams — both with warranted Super Bowl ambitions — throw down on Sunday Night Football. There are a lot of ways to bet this one, however, we’re sticking with the classic spread between Dallas and San Francisco. Here’s how the odds shake out both ways:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco spread (-3.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Dallas spread (+3.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
At this point in the season, no one is playing better than the 49ers. They are one of two undefeated teams left (the Eagles the other), but they’re not just winning, they’re steamrolling teams. San Francisco has won three of four by double digits and has scored at least 30 points every time out. Offense, defense, coaching, special teams — there are no obvious warts anywhere (yet).
Dallas had one hiccup, a stunning 12-point loss to Arizona in Week 3, but have dominated in the other three matchups. Those three wins came by an average margin of just under 32 points. Its defense is the backbone of the team, but as always, no one’s quite sure Dak Prescott is really “the guy” to get the Cowboys back into the promise land.
Dak and Dallas’ MO with him has always been the same: good enough to beat the middle teams, not good enough to beat the elite teams. The team has won 12 games each of the past two years only to lose to San Francisco in the postseason. Prescott struggled mightily in both games, which makes us think the 49ers have his number. That’s why we’re confidently putting money on San Fran to win by at least four come Sunday.
How To Bet On NFL Week 5?
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