Betting Guide For UFC 253

Two title fights — for the middleweight and light heavyweight gold — headline the UFC 253 card on September 26. We have an in-depth betting preview to the co-headling bouts right here. Before you even think about wagering on the event, read this for valuable advice!

Another weekend, another star-studded card from the UFC. Here's how the current UFC 253 odds shake out, per Bovada:

Favorite			Underdog
Israel Adesanya	-165	+135	Paul Costa
Dominick Reyes	-230	+180	Jan Blachowicz

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A Close-Up Fight In The Main Event

Oh, boy, what a main event this one will be! Neither of these two has ever tasted defeat in their MMA careers, making it a tough bet to predict. The reigning middleweight champion, Adesanya, is 19-0 (14 KOs). Whereas the challenger, Costa, is 13-0 (11 KOs).

Even more, these two have been trading barbs at one another for two years now. There's legit bad blood between the two young phenoms. And now, with championship gold on the line, this is a fight-of-the-year-caliber bout.

To the untrained eye, Costa looks like the superior fighter. He's got one of the sport's best bodies and walks around 200-plus pounds with slabs of muscles everywhere. In contrast, Adesanya is tall and lanky, but with that, comes an eight-inch-reach advantage over Costa.

This matchup puts a classic fight debate to the test — power vs. skill. Costa's best chance at winning is landing a flush shot to Adesanya early and pouncing on him for the knockout. However, we're not convinced he'll do that.

"The Style Bender", as Adesanya is referred to, will duck and dodge Costa early. Moreover, fighting a five-round fight for the first time will be a disadvantage to Costa. Expect Adesanya to fight a "war of attrition" per se and outlast Costa to retain the middleweight gold. Bet on the champ to retain.

Betting pick to make: Adesanya (-165)

What Will Adesanya's Exact Method Of Victory Be?

In any UFC bout, one of the most fun props to wager on is the exact finish — knockout, submission, or decision. It's certainly a tantalizing prop in regards to Costa and Adesanya.

Like we alluded to before, Costa's swing-for-the-fences fight style doesn't fare well in a five-round championship fight if he can't connect with that power punch early. After two rounds, once fatigue sets in, those types of fighters lose that knockout power that makes them so deadly at a full tank of gas.

That lack of stamina is what we expect to be Costa's downfall against Adesanya. It also doesn't help that Costa genuinely dislikes his opponent. Fighting at this main-event level is as much about keeping emotions in check than anything else and Costa's anger may get the best of him, especially early on.

While five of Adesanya's last seven fights have gone to decision, we see this one ending before that. A tired-out Costa in the late rounds will be mistake-prone against Adesanya. Using his stand-up boxing and kickboxing background, we believe Adesanya makes him pay with a knockout in the fourth or fifth round.

Betting pick to make: Adesanya by KO

Reyes The Big Favorite In The Interm Title Match

This bout was created once Jon Jones vacated his light heavyweight championship, ending a storybook era in the weight class. For the first time in a long time, there'll be a new title-holder not named Jones or Daniel Cormier.

Reyes is the odds-on favorite across the board to fill that void. Heck, many believe Jones vacated the belt to avoid a rematch fight against Reyes. Earlier this year, the two went at it at UFC 247, while Jones won by unanimous decision, it's perhaps the weakest he's ever looked in the octagon. Jones had to be carried backstage following the bout due to all the devastating leg kick Reyes landed during the matchup.

We have to agree with the betting sentiment and pick Reyes to prevail here. Outside of that loss to Jones — a UFC all-timer in his own right — Reyes has won all 12 of his career fights. Seven ended by knockout, three by decision, and two via submission.

He's an all-around fighter that can beat Blachowicz in whatever way he chooses. Our prediction is Reyes claims victory by stoppage. Blachowicz has a strong chin, but his last loss came via TKO to Thiagos Santos in 2019.

Betting pick to make: Reyes (-230)

Other UFC 253 Main Card Fights

Of course, the UFC 253 card will be rounded out by a slew of other fights. Here's what's also scheduled to take place come Septemeber 26:

Women's strawweight: Claudia Gadelha vs. Yan Xiaonan
Featherweight: Hakeem Dawodu vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Flyweight: Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval

If you're looking for all UFC 253 betting odds, check out one of the sportsbooks below. They'll have you covered for this fight card, plus all the others on the horizon such as UFC 254 that features the megafight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje.

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