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Analyzing Marshawn Lynch Super Bowl XLIX Props
The Seattle Seahawks don't reach last year's Super Bowl without star running back Marshawn Lynch and they don't have a chance to repeat as NFL champions in Super Bowl XLIX on Feb. 1 against New England, either, without Lynch. Yet this Super Bowl could well be Lynch's final game as a Seahawk because Lynch will be 29 in April and he has a lot of tread on his tires. Seattle has to pay Russell Wilson and a few other guys so Lynch could be cut loose even as good as he still is.
With that said, let's examine some Super Bowl XLIX props involving Lynch from Bovada and Sportsbook.ag.
Lynch 4/1 to win Super Bowl MVP: He is the third-favorite behind Patriots QB Tom Brady (8/5) and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (7/2). No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Denver's Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII. While Wilson threw four picks in the 28-22 NFC title game overtime win over Green Bay, Lynch carried 25 times for 157 yards with a TD and caught one pass for 26 yards. Other than perhaps Dallas' DeMarco Murray, no running back is more important to his team in today's NFL than Lynch is to his. That was Lynch's sixth game this season with at least 100 yards and Seattle has won five of those.
Lynch 11/2 to score game's first touchdown: He is the overall favorite on this prop and likely should be as if Seattle has the ball on the New England goal line, Lynch will get the ball. Some teams, like New England, might get cute and try play-action. Not Seattle. Lynch had 13 rushing scores during the regular season and that one last week vs. Green Bay. Lynch is at 5/2 to score the first Seattle touchdown; not necessarily the first of the Super Bowl. He is 3/1 to have more than two touchdowns in the game. He had five games with at least two this season, including a four-TD game on Nov. 9 against the New York Giants.
Lynch +500 to be fined for any incident on Media Day: The annual media day is Tuesday in Glendale, and Lynch is of course notably media-shy as he has incurred NFL punishment often for refusing to speak to the media. Even when he does, Lynch usually just repeats the same word or two over and over and leaves after 30 seconds. Lynch has to show up at media day and speak or risk a fine, but the NFL can't tell him what he has to say. That Lynch isn't fined is -1000.
Lynch +150 for more than 100 yards rushing: As noted above Lynch has six 100-yard games this season. When Seattle faced New England in the 2012 regular season, Lynch had just 41 yards on 15 carries.
Lynch even money to have 20 or more carries: "Beast Mode" has had at least 20 in nine games overall, with last week's 25 the second-most of the season.
Lynch +140 for more than 30 receiving yards: He isn't used a ton in the passing game, totaling 37 receptions for 367 yards during the regular season and four catches for 32 yards in two playoff games. Lynch's season-high for receiving yards was 76 on Nov. 2 vs. Oakland. He has topped 30 receiving yards four times overall this year.
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