Preseason is back this week with a FULL slate of games featuring every NFL team. How about starting off the season with some wins? We think we know which games and outcomes will pay so keep reading for our expert NFL preseason betting advice!
- What: NFL preseason week 1
- When: Games start Thursday, August 10
Best Bets For 2023 NFL Preseason
Some overarching advice when it comes to betting on the 2023 NFL preseason: don’t risk too much money. It’s the preseason, after all. Not all teams are even trying to win these exhibition contests. Many use the preseason to test out plays, packages, or certain players. So use only “play money” for now — you can get serious once the real season begins in September.
Still, we’ve been waiting since February for any kind of NFL game betting and we can’t help ourselves. Here are three preseason bets we’re targeting this week:
Moneyline: Houston Texans at New England Patriots
This is as anticipating of a preseason game as the Texans have ever had. That’s because it’s the grand debut of their head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and two first-round picks (quarterback CJ Stroud and linebacker Will Anderson). There’s some anticipation on the Patriot’s side too because its offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien battles his ex-team for the first time. As it stands, the Houston-New England moneyline is at pick ‘em:
| Team |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston pick 'em | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| New England pick 'em | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Typically, starters only get a decent amount of playing time in game two — not the first or third games. However, the Texans might be the exception to that rule this coming Thursday. The team is so young and new that they could use all the playing time they can get together before Week 1.
Moreover, Houston needs to find its starting quarterback. Stroud isn’t a lock to be QB1 right away. The Texans also have Davis Mills, who’s been so-so under center the past two years. Mills could be the bridge for Stroud unless the rookie lights it up right away. Both signal callers could be extra motivated to make plays against the Pats and secure their jobs.
We would expect a short night from New England’s Mac Jones though. The up-and-down quarterback doesn’t need anyone calling for his head if he underperforms in this meaningless preseason matchup. O’Brien and Bill Belichick both have talked about giving him a “clean slate” in year three. For all these reasons, we expect Houston to win as their starters will likely be involved more.
Over/Under 37 points: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
These two teams will practice against each other during the week and then culminate with a matchup on Friday — so there should be some familiarity between each. Top NFL betting sites have set the Atlanta-Miami over/under at a conservative 37 points, as seen below:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 37 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 37 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Immediately, our gut says the under is more plausible. That’s because we expect a more run-dominant game, which slows down the tempo and increases the chances of a low-scoring affair.
Atlanta, for sure, loves to run the rock. A year ago, the Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts and finished fourth-best in yards per carry. We’d expect the same exact recipe in 2023 because they might have the least-proven quarterback in the NFL. Last year’s third-rounder Desmond Ridder is penciled in to start and no one exactly believes he has a high playing ceiling.
On the other end, Miami is not a run-first team. They love to throw the ball down the field — as they should with two speedsters at wideout, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. However, don’t expect either of the two to play a lot or the Dolphins to use the passing game. Running was its weakness in 2022 so they’d be smart to improve it this season. Perhaps they use this game to experiment with that phase of the game. If so, under becomes all the more likely.
Spread: Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
We had to do a double-take when we saw the Denver-Arizona spread. The road team is a whopping 5.5-point favorite to win— in a damn preseason game. Here are the current betting lines:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver spread (-5.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Arizona spread (+5.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
We get it, most believe the Cardinals are the worst team in the league until quarterback Kyler Murray comes back from an ACL injury. Without him, Arizona might be thrust into playing rookie Clayton Tune or journeyman Colt McCoy. Either way, their prospects aren’t exactly great. Still, we think almost a touchdown spread is too much in preseason. That’s why the underdogs get our money in this spot.
How To Bet On 2023 NFL Preseason
In case you forgot, the NFL preseason is only three games now — not four. That change was made when the league switched to 17-game regular seasons. With that said, all your chances to bet on the NFL preseason will be in the next three weeks or so.
For a one-stop shop to preseason betting, start with one of the bookmakers listed below. Per our latest sportsbook reviews, all five lead the way in NFL betting. What’s more, all these sites are offering lucrative sportsbook bonuses. Hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play could be earned off such deals, which can effectively bankroll your preseason wagers. See what offer is available where in the underneath table.
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