UFC returns to Rio for UFC 301. As you’d expect, it’s a Brazilian-heavy fight card — one littered with good betting opportunities. We’re about to tell you our three favorite UFC 301 picks so stay tuned if you’re looking to make money this Cinco de Mayo weekend.
- What: UFC 301
- When: Saturday, May 4
- Where: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Betting Pick
In the UFC 301 main event, Pantoja puts his flyweight championship on the line against Erceg. As it stands, Pantoja is almost -200 to win. We’re more interested in betting the Erceg-Pantoja over/under instead though. Here’s how the best UFC betting sites have that one pegged:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 Rounds | -145 | -145 | -145 |
| Under 3.5 Rounds | +115 | +115 | +115 |
Is Erceg out of his element in this fight? It certainly feels like it as he’s ranked all the way at No. 10 in the division. He’s only fought three times in the UFC — all wins, albeit against no one ranked in the top 10. However, due to Pantoja already running through most of the division and a few injuries elsewhere, Erceg gets a somewhat undeserved title shot here.
Pantoja should win this fight. The 34-year-old is legit as recent decision wins over Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval have showed. He’s an extremely balanced fighter. Of course, he can grapple as you’d expect with a Brazilian fighter but he’s a damn good striker too. Pantoja can and does press forward often inside the octagon.
Question is, how does Pantoja end up winning? His career wins are pretty evenly split up — 10 submissions, 9 decisions, and 8 knockouts. We’re calling this a decision win for Pantoja. That’s because Erceg is a sneaky good grappler. If you look at where Pantoja has struggled in the past, it’s with fighters with a strong ground game. Erceg could push him to his limits thus the over bet makes sense here.
Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo Betting Pick
The biggest star at UFC 301 is, without a shadow of a doubt, Aldo who will get his hero’s welcome here. The 37-year-old unretired just for this fight and returns after a two-year absence. In spite of this, Aldo is a small underdog against Martinez. Here’s where the odds stand:
| FIghter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Martinez | -155 | -155 | -155 |
| Jose Aldo | +130 | +130 | +130 |
Bettors need to ask themselves one question here — how committed is Aldo really? Look, he’s one of the best featherweights in MMA history with a 31-8 record that included a five-year reign as UFC champion. But he has been on the shelf since August 2022. Did Dana White and company convince him to show up here (and boost this card)? Or does Aldo still have something to prove a few months shy of turning 38 (many believe he’s actually older)?
We lean more toward the former. Aldo has nothing to prove as he’s an all-timer. But the allure of a nice payday in his home country was too much to pass up. Typically, that’s not a good reason worth fighting for.
We’re firmly betting on Martinez here. He’s no spring chicken either — 36 years old — but he hasn’t taken the type of damage Aldo has over the years. His recent activity in the ring and age should help Martinez outwork Aldo. We fully anticipate Martinez to lean on his Muy Thai background to wear down the aged Aldo. Bank on it happening!
Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho Betting Pick
You have to bet the Craig vs. Borralho over/under — if you want to preserve betting value. That’s because Borralho is a staggering -575 favorite to win. This is the second-most lopsided moneyline of UFC 301. Therefore, we’re on the over/under and here are the odds there:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -200 | -200 | -200 |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | +150 | +150 | +150 |
This is your classic showcase matchmaking. The heavily-favored Borralho is a hot prospect. He’s 15-1-1 over his career and won all seven of his UFC bouts. The 31-year-old is a grappler through and through — and yes, he’s Brazilian too. Watch out for his double-legged takedown as it’s he’s very slick at pulling it off mid-fight.
Craig, on the other hand, is your aging veteran on a downtrend. A few years back he was fighting at light heavyweight and owned impressive wins over Jamal Hill and Magomed Ankalaev. However, he’s lost three of his last four and went down to middleweight. Craig can grapple too, but not at the level of Borralho.
Both these fighters are grapplers by nature so a submission victory is likely. We predict Borralho gets the submission and does so early. We just feel Craig is too “over the hill” at this stage and Borralho will make quick work of him in front of his home fans.
How To Bet On UFC 301?
UFC 301 bets are in the hundreds when you factor in prop bets. If you want a full list of these bets across the dozen or so bouts, hit one of the bookies below. These are the top-rated sites in our latest sportsbook reviews so you’re in good hands all the way around.
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