Finally — the NFL is back! This league is the king of sports betting and it’s here for the next five months straight. That’s why it’s important to start off with a bang. Our three NFL betting picks will do just that. Keep reading to get our free advice!
Against The Spread: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
This is the season-opening game on Thursday so make sure to get your Detroit-Kansas City bet in early. When it comes to this matchup, we’re eying the spread, which of course favors the reigning champion Chiefs. Here’s the odds both ways:
| Team |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City spread (-6.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Detroit spread (+6.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
If you’re reading this, then chances are you’re well familiar with Kansas City. This is a modern-day dynasty with three Super Bowl trips (two wins) in four years. Patrick Mahomes is the face of the NFL, and that’s expected to continue this season. Chiefs are a well-oiled machine so you know what you’re getting week in, week out: a high-octane offense.
That’s why we’re going to focus on the Lions instead. For the first time in a long time, Detroit has hype. Everyone is picking them as the team that’s most on the rise after posting a 9-8 record a year ago. The team would’ve won more if they just played any lick of defense. That side of the ball is the X-factor for them this year, and in this bet too.
Detroit sure spent money to address it, particularly in the secondary. Free-agent defensive backs Cameron Sutton, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Emmanuel Moseley were added — but we don’t expect them to gel this quickly, especially against the best offense in the NFL. Lions will be better in 2023, but it won’t be this early. We’re taking Kansas City to comfortably cover at home.
Over/Under 45 Points: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 45 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 45 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Here’s a divisional matchup between two uber-young teams. Immediately, the over/under caught our attention on this Jags-Colts matchup. It’s set at 45 points, which is “middle of the road” compared to other Week 1 games.
We’re fully behind the Jags continuing their ascent in Year 2 under Doug Pederson. The Super Bowl-winning coach turned around this anemic organization in one offseason as they won the AFC South and finally, Trevor Lawrence looked like the franchise QB he was drafted to be. Jacksonville should be able to put up points on Sunday.
The Colts, however, we're less optimistic. That’s because this team is inexperienced up and down, especially on offense. Its rookie starting quarterback, Anthony Richardson, is only 21 years old. He won’t have the services of all-pro running back Jonathan Taylor, who remains miffed at the organization. This is also Shane Steichen's first game as a head coach.
We’re not expecting much out of Indy’s attack in this matchup — it’s too fast, too soon. That’s why we’ll take the under here. Jacksonville will score, but not enough to push this past 45 points.
Moneyline: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa will forever be linked as they were drafted back to back in what’s turning out to be a star-studded 2021 quarterback class. They’ve faced off twice before, splitting the series one apiece. Sunday’s game is the rubber match and we’re jumping on the LA-Miami moneyline without fear. As it stands, the best betting sites for NFL have the Bolts as slight favorites to come out on top:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | -160 | -160 | -160 |
| Miami | +140 | +140 | +140 |
While eyes will be on the quarterback battle, ours will be on the defenses. A year ago, the Chargers stunted Miami’s attack en route to victory. They used man-to-man coverage — not zone — and disrupted the Dolphins offense. Mike McDaniels couldn’t counter, running the same attack without success. That defensive strategy was courtesy of then-defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill, who was fired and now is a defensive backs coach for the Phins.
Hill reports to Vic Fangio, the debuting defensive coordinator of Miami. Fangio pioneered many of the defensive schemes used around the NFL today, and he’s teased having new wrinkles this year after taking one season off from coaching. Fangio is a proven defensive savant and we’re giving him the benefit of the doubt in slowing down Herbert. Bet Miami to pull off the upset in this one.
How To Bet On NFL 2023 Season?
Week 1 is just the tip of the iceberg. As we said, NFL betting opportunities will be abundant for the rest of 2023 — 17 more playing weeks and then the playoffs right after that. If you need a one-stop shop for NFL betting during the 2023 season, you’ll want to look into one of the bookmakers featured in the below table. These sites are industry leaders, as laid out in our unbiased sportsbook reviews.
But here’s the best part about using these bookies: they offer lucrative sign-up bonuses. What do we mean by lucrative? We’re talking hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play! That’s a lot of money that can bankroll your NFL betting to start out the season — essentially betting on the bookies’ own dime. Our favorite welcome bonuses are detailed underneath. Pick one and your first NFL bets come at no cost!
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