Need help betting on Week 4 in the NFL? Stop and read this for five minutes then. We’ve hand-picked three games MOST worth betting on and revealing our advice right here. You don’t want to miss this!
- What: NFL Week 4
- When: September 28 to October 2
Moneyline: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
This might be the game of the week as two AFC championship contenders face off. The best NFL betting sites are currently favoring Buffalo to get the victory over Miami. Here’s where the odds stand:
| Team |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | -145 | -145 | -145 |
| Miami | +125 | +125 | +125 |
Miami just put up a 70-point game — only the fourth in NFL history — and are somehow underdogs in this game. It was a historic display of offense across the board, from throwing to running to play-calling to blocking. Just utter domination, but at the same time, we get why Buffalo is favored by the bookies.
The Dolphins might’ve had their way with the Broncos, but the Bills are a step up in competition. Big time. Buffalo had an impressive showing of its own this past Sunday, shellacking Washington 37-3 in the Commanders' own home. The defensive line paved the way for the blowout. The Bills sacked quarterback Sam Howell nine times and hit him another 15 times. This constant pressure forced Howell into four interceptions.
The question becomes, which team’s Week 3 performance is more replicable going forward? How about neither? Seriously, both Miami’s offensive explosion and Buffalo’s defensive shutdown are far, far from the norm. Their week 4 matchup will be close — just like all three of their meetings a year ago were.
That being said, we sense there’s a changing of the guard happening in the AFC East. Miami is the team to beat — not Buffalo as recent years would suggest. Part of what makes the Dolphins attack so lethal is how fast the ball gets out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hands. His quick decision-making will make the Bills’ pass rush less effective and swing this win in the Dolphins' direction. Take ‘em to score the upset!
Moneyline: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Here’s another divisional battle between a pair of playoff-caliber teams. As it stands, Cleveland is favored to win over Baltimore on the moneyline. Here’s how the odds stand:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | -140 | -140 | -140 |
| Baltimore | +120 | +120 | +120 |
Do the Browns have the best defense in the NFL? Certain stats say yes. Get this, opponents are averaging a meager 6.7 points per game against Cleveland after three games. Even crazier, the Browns have allowed just one touchdown so far. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has seemingly re-made that side of the ball in a hurry.
However, we’d push pause on this narrative. Yes, the Browns have playmakers on defense, but their three-game output has been beefed up by playing against downtrodden offenses. Here are the three teams Cleveland has beaten up on so far: the Bengals (who look like a shell of themselves), the Steelers, and the Titans. All three of these offenses have looked bottom-10 on the NFL when playing the Browns and when not.
We sense Baltimore will be able to move the ball on Cleveland without issue. The Ravens were upset by Indianapolis last weekend but were also without four offensive starters — pass-catcher Odell Beckham Jr., running back Justice Hill, and lineman Tyler Linderbaum and Ronnie Stanley. Three other starters missed the game too. We’d expect a much healthier Ravens squad come Sunday.
The safe bet would be to take Baltimore the cover the spread, but we’re going for the straight-up win. We really do believe the Browns have benefitted from a weak playing schedule and will get exposed in this one.
Against The Spread: New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys
The first thought that came to mind when looking at the Patriots vs. Dallas spread is, “wow, seven points?” The Cowboys are favored by that much, which surprised us. Here’s how the lines shaking out:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas spread (-7) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| New England spread (+7) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Dallas, per usual, had a big letdown in Week 3 after they were talked up as Super Bowl contenders after two weeks. They lost 30-10 to an Arizona team that’s expected to be picking top-5 in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Cowboys’ thought-to-be No. 1 defense was gashed for 222 yards rushing. Then on offense, Dallas converted only one of five red-zone trips into a touchdown.
The heat is officially back on Dak Prescott. The same goes for Mac Jones of the Patriots. Not only is his play subpar (QB rating under 90 after three games), but he’s also accused of being dirty now (Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner alleged he was low-blowed by Jones). This might be an offensive stinker of a game. If so, that alludes to a New England cover. The Pats are a run-first team because of Jones' struggles and might be able to replicate the Cards’ running-game success too versus the Boys.
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