Don’t put a dollar on the 2024 Super Bowl until you read our betting guide on the “big game.” We’re previewing the matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers then laying out three must-make Super Bowl bets.
- What: Super Bowl 58
- Where: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada
- When: Sunday, February 11
Super Bowl Preview
It was the matchup that seemed destined in the preseason. But mid-season slides by both — San Francisco lost three in a row, while Kansas City lost four out of six — questioned the matchup. Yet, it happened anyway after thrilling victories from both sides in the conference championship. Let’s preview the 2024 Super Bowl on a macro level.
To be quite frank, Kansas City is entering the game at a higher playing level. They went on the road the past two weeks and beat the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds — both of which have leading MVP candidates at quarterback. San Francisco, meanwhile, has had to rally from double-digit deficits in consecutive weeks, all while being at home as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
We suppose you can respect the 49ers' comeback ways, or you can be weary and think, “can they keep this up?” We are in the second camp, if we’re being honest. It’s one thing to get behind Jordan Love or Jared Goff, but it’s another if Patrick Mahomes is on the other side. Our future says the best quarterback in the league will be less forgiving than the Packers and Lions were.
But at the same time, Kansas City overcame two teams where the “moment” felt too big for them. Both the Bills and Ravens — and the two quarterbacks that lead them — have a long history of playoff shortcomings. This San Francisco has more of a “been there, done that” mentality because they have. These two sides met in 2020, a game where San Francisco blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead and lost 31-20.
What’s changed since that Super Bowl meeting? What’s stayed the same? Let’s find with our betting picks below.
Super Bowl Betting Picks
For now, our Super Bowl picks will be focused on the “big three” — spread, over/under points, and moneyline. Here’s what we’re putting money for each bet:
Over/Under 47.5 Points
|Over 47.5 Points
|Under 47.5 Points
The biggest reason for the Chiefs turnaround? It HAS to be the play of the defense. KC has now held four of their last five opponents to 17 points or less. The unit finished second in scoring defense during the regular season but has even kicked it up a notch against thought-to-be-vaunted offenses like the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens
The Niners defense has been more hot and cold, and that was perfectly encapsulated in the NFC title game. In the first half, San Francisco allowed 148 rushing yards and 24 points. That all changed after intermission as the 49ers held the Lions to seven points, which came in garbage time anyway.
Our money says the good 49ers defense shows up on Super Bowl Sunday. They’re too talented and have two weeks to clean up the miscues that’ve plagued them the last two games. If they straighten up, we could have ourselves a defensive showdown in the Super Bowl. Bet the under accordingly.
Across the best NFL betting sites, the 49ers have opened as one-point favorites over the Chiefs. There’s a chance these lines move from now until game day, but here’s where things stand:
|Kansas City spread (+1)
|San Francisco spread (-1)
If there’s one lesson we’ve had ingrained from the Chiefs is that there’s Mahomes and then there’s everyone else. Each playoff game, we’ve seen him outplay the opposing quarterback — Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. All three of those have received more MVP talk this season than Mahomes, who statistically, is having the worst year of his career. Yet all three made crucial mistakes, while Mahomes did not.
Will we see deja vu with Brock Purdy? We’re betting so. Look, Purdy is very good — and an upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo, who KC last beat. But we have a feeling he too will be much inferior to Mahomes on the big stage. Even one missed clutch-time throw or turnover could be the difference in this one. Mahomes and company is getting our money here.
If you’d rather get plus-money odds on KC, then take a shot at the Super Bowl moneyline. Here’s the latest odds:
No need to repeat ourselves given our spread pick: it’s tough to pick against Mahomes, who’s building an all-time resume. A win against the 49ers and he becomes only the fifth starting WB with three Super Bowls. Not bad for a 28-year-old.
How To Bet On The Super Bowl?
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