Mon 04/01/2021 - 09:09 EST

NCAAF Title Game Betting Guide

NCAAF Title Game Betting Guide

The more things change, the more they stay the same. A tumultuous college football season ends with two familiar teams — Alabama and Ohio State — in the College Football Playoff final. Here’s a complete betting guide to the championship with free picks to make on the spread, over/under, and moneyline.

After all of THAT, we're down to two in college football — the Tide vs. the Buckeyes. Nick Saban vs. Ryan Day. And we have a one-stop NCAAF title game betting guide to it all.

But first, let's take a look at how online oddsmakers are pegging the championship title. A quick glance below and you'll realize Alabama are the heavy favorites, to no one's surprise. 

Denny Hamlin+650+600
Chase Elliott+850+900
Joey Logano+750+1100
Ryan Blaney+900+1000
Brad Keselowski+850+1100
Kyle Busch+1100+2200

While the moneyline might be lopsided, the spread and point total for the game is more of a toss-up. Either way, we have you covered with gambling picks for all three wagers next. Let's run them down one by one:

Betting The 8-Point Spread

An eight-point difference on the spread might seem a lot given it's a title game, but then again, this is Alabama we're talking about. The Tide have the highest average margin of victory (29.2 points) in the nation and have won all but one game by at least 15 points thus far. 

Yep, Bama is scary good. Heck, they have a strong case for being Nick Saban's most dominant group ever — which is saying something given the caliber of Tide teams Saban has coached during this incredible run. Routs of then-No. 13 Texas A&M (28 points), No. 3 Georgia (17 points), and No. 22 Auburn (29 points) prove that dominance.

Then again, Ohio State figures to be Alabama's toughest foe yet. Seriously. The position-by-position matchups are eerily close.

For one, each has can't-miss talent on the offensive side. Bama is armed with the two Heisman Trophy front-runners — quarterback Marc Jones and wideout DeVonta Smith — and a hurdler of running back in Najee Harris. Whereas the Buckeyes have an equally-explosive trio in sign caller Justin Fields, rusher Trey Sermon, and pass-catcher Chris Olave. 

But it's in the "trenches" where both teams compare most favorably. That was on full display during the CFP semi-finals when the two's offensive and defensive lines created mismatches left and right against Notre Dame and Clemson.

All this leads us to believe the finale will go down to the wire. We're talking a one-score difference and whoever has the ball last winning. If so, that means at the very least, the Buckeyes cover. 

Betting pick to make: Ohio State (+8)

Betting The Over/Under 75.5 Points

We've already mentioned the dynamite offensive talent — with NFL first-round picks written all over them — for each program. Given that, that should signal an all-out shootout ensuing, right? Well, not quite.

Here's why: if either team is able to establish a pulverizing run game, that will slow the game down. Big time. Naturally, points will be harder to come by in a slower-tempo scenario such as that.

We could definitely see Ohio State's gameplan favoring that run-first approach. And honestly, it has the skill players to execute it successfully.

The talk of the country the past few weeks has been Buckeye running back Sermon. He followed a school-record 331-yard rush performance in the Big-10 title game with another 193-yard outburst against Clemson. The combined 524-yard output is a program record for a two-game stretch.

If stopping Sermon wasn't hard enough for the Crimson Tide, then there's Fields. The quarterback is fresh off the game of his life versus the Tigers — a combined 578 yards of offense and seven scores — and can kill opposing defenses with his legs.

A two-headed rushing monster of Sermon and Fields will slice and dice the Alabama defense come title time. More so, it'll keep Bama's vaunted offense in check mostly by keeping it off the field more often than not. What's the famous saying again? "The best defense is a great offense?" Yep, we see that playing out here, which will keep the scoring total below the 75.5 mark.  

Betting pick to make: Under 75.5 Points

Betting The Moneyline

Alright, so which team is left standing on the field with confetti raining down by the end of the game? While we've showered Ohio State with praise all article long, our money is still on Saban and Bama

Simply put, you don't bet against all-time greatness and that's Saban to a tee. He's going for his seventh national title in 16 years. If he pulls it off, he'll break a tie with legendary ball coach Paul "Bear" Bryant for most in college history by a head coach.

Saban will draw up that one play that decides the game. Whether it's a way to confuse Fields into a turnover, or slow Sermon on a critical fourth down, or just get the ball to his generational offensive playmaker in Smith — he'll figure it out. Bet Bama to win here. 

Betting pick to make: Alabama (-290)

Folks, that's three gambling picks for the CFP final. Whether you heed our advice or fade us is up to you. Regardless, you can get your bets in before the January 11 matchup at any one of the online sportsbooks below.

These bettings sites are "cream of the crop." And better yet, each has a sign-up bonus for first-time bettors. The deal — which includes hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play — is earned upon registering an account and making an initial deposit. That's no-strings-attached "house money" you can use to bet on the NCAAF final or other sports, and what's not to like about that?

Category : News

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