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Eric Uribe | Mon 18/01/2021 - 07:35 EST

NFL 2021 Conference Championship Betting Guide

NFL 2021 Conference Championship Betting Guide
It's down to four: the Bills, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Packers. Who earns a Super Bowl spot? Who covers the spread? Over or under on the points? We answer each of those burning questions in this detailed NFL conference title game preview. Read this before you put any money down on the games!

What a weekend ahead in the NFL playoffs and we have a complete NFL 2021 Conference Championship betting guide to all of the action — including free picks to make.

First things first, though, let's see how the online oddsmakers are pegging both the AFC & NFC title matchups at the moment:

Kansas City Chiefs-157+137Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers-190+165Tampa Bay Bucs

As you'd expect in the penultimate round of the NFL postseason, it's eagerly close both ways. Don't let the razor-thin lines deter you, however, we have expert betting advice you should know ahead of game time:

Over/Under 54 Points: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Will he play? Will he not play? That's the rightful question on everyone's mind, especially bettors and bookies, regarding Patrick Mahomes after possibly suffering a concussion against the Bills. 

And honestly, we might not know Mahomes status until hours before game day. The full extent of Mahomes injury remains murky and the NFL's concussion protocol (if proven he did sustain the injury) is equally murky. Therefore, it's best to take a wait-and-see approach when wagering on this game — don't rush to bet it until more information is released, which ultimately, will shift the betting lines immensely.

If Mahomes doesn't play, well, the Bills instantly become favored over a Chad Henne-quarterbacked Chiefs team. If he does play, well, Buffalo benefits from a woozy Mahomes who is severely limited in preparation all week long. So any way you slice it, we love the Bills spread here

Not only cause of the Mahomes factor, either. No, this Bills team is stacked from top to bottom, too. Believe it or not, during the regular season, Buffalo's offensive attack was right on par, if not better, than Kansas City's. League-wide, the Chiefs ranked first in total yards (with the Bills a close second), while Buffalo was second in scoring (Kansas City was sixth). And lastly, it's Josh Allen, not Mahomes, that is earning serious MVP talk this year. 

Despite those vaunted offenses, we do figure this matchup to be a more low-scoring affair. That accounts for either a limited Mahomes or no Mahomes at all, plus an inexperienced Bills team playing a pressure-cooker game on the road. 

So we're taking the Bills and the under, but again, don't rush into this quite yet. Let's see how the Mahomes situation unfolds before committing big money to it. 

Betting pick to make: Bills (+3) and under 54 points

Over/Under 51 Points: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Last time out, we said Tom Brady was playing like the Brady of old and he proved it once more against the Saints with a three-touchdown effort. But now he runs into another quarterback who has also found the fountain of youth — MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers. Boy, what a matchup it's gonna be.

Of course, it'll be inside Lambeau Field, one of the league's best home-field advantages, whether there are fans present or not. It's early, but weather reports point toward a classic Lambeau game — cold and snow showers

Snowy conditions typically mean low scoring, but not this time around. No, that's because Rodgers and Brady are both playing out of their mind, plus neither is unaccustomed to harsh weather conditions. Throw in the bevy of playmakers on both sides — Devante Adams, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Jones, etc. — and yes, you have a game with all the makings for an over despite the snow.

Picking a winner is tougher to predict, however. That's because both teams are scorching hot with neither losing a game since November. Not only are they winning, but each team is beating the breaks off opponents. Green Bay has won seven in a row with five of those coming by double digits. Similarly, Tampa has strung together six straight victories and five double-digit wins of their own.

Though these two did already meet in the regular season and it wasn't as close as you'd think. The Buccaneers smoked the Packers 38-10 in week 6 on their home turf. Of course, a lot has changed since then and Lambeau will make a HUGE difference in the rematch.  

Nonetheless, we can't dismiss that convincing win by Tampa before. It was the lone time this season that the Packers' number-one-ranked offense was completely bottled up. We're not saying they'll do the same in the Lambeau, but it'll be enough for Brady and company to outduel Rodgers. Book the upset because the Buccaneers are pulling this one out!

Betting pick to make: Bucs (+3.5) and over 51 points

That covers it for us, folks, now it's on you to either tailor fade our NFL playoff betting picks — the choice is all yours. However, if you happen to be in the market for a reliable betting site to make such bets (and the subsequent Super Bowl), then we have a handy list below. 

Where to bet on the NFL Conferences' Title Games?

Not only are the below bookmakers trustworthy and easy-to-use, but you also stand to win free money — to the tune of one thousand dollars — if you register and play right now. Seriously, it's called a sign-up bonus and each bookie is offering one, with full promotional details covered in the table underneath. Don't miss out on the fun nor the free play and check out these sportsbooks before the big games!

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