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NFL Week 9 Betting Odds
Who Will Win In Week 9
By Dan Favale
We are picking four of the 13 games this week, with the hope that our guestimates make it easy for you to place your wagers leading into this weekend. All game lines, as per usual, come from RealBet. Since they often change, make sure to double-check the odds before you submit your bets.
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
It's understandable that the New Orleans Saints aren't favored on the road. They are 1-2 away from home this season, they own the second worst defense in the league, and they've been generally hot and cold since early last year. The uncertainty at running back, with Tim Hightower taking touches from Mark Ingram, is maddening as well.
But the Saints showed something in their win over the Seattle Seahawks last week. Their defense came up with some big stops, and the offense mustered 25 points against perhaps the best defense in the NFL.
That matters leading into this week's matchup with the 1-6 San Francisco 49ers. Yes, they're at home. But they also deploy a defense that's worse than the Saints', and their offense isn't anything special.
Imagine that: Drew Brees facing off against a defense that is in worse shape than his own team's. That's a scary proposition, and it's why we're rolling with New Orleans here.
The Pick: New Orleans Saints (-3.5), over
Los Angeles Rams (+3) vs. Carolina Panthers (-3)
Are the Carolina Panthers 2-5? Yes. Are they long shots to make the playoffs? Yes.
Should you approach their betting potential like any other 2-5 team that's probably going to miss the playoffs?
Something appears to have changed in the Panthers. They enter with one of the six worst defenses in the league, but their offense has climbed up to fourth on the points-per-game ladder. The St. Louis Rams' 14th-ranked defense may give them some problems, but the return of running back Jonathan Stewart has opened up everything on the offensive end. The mere idea of hiim is force defenses to change their schemes, and it's giving Cam Newton more time, and the Panthers' receivers more space.
And as for their defense, it appears to be on the up and up.
Indeed, the Panthers let up 20 points in their win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. But most of those came after the Panthers were aready up big, when they were defending to protect their lead, not necessarily to keep the Cardinals from reaching the endzone.
The Rams, meanwhile, deploy one of the three worst offenses in the NFL. They don't pose a real threat to Carolina's defense, and that should make all the difference in this one.
The Pick: Carolina Panthers (+3), under
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)
In any other week, the pick would be the Kansas City Chiefs. No ifs, ands or buts.
But this isn't any other week.
Quarterback Alex Smith won't be able to go for the Chiefs, and that changes everything. Their ninth-ranked offense isn't going to be as sharp with backup Nick Foles under center, and their third-ranked defense will only hold up so long against the Jacksonville Jaguars' passing attack.
If this turns into a slugfest, as it just might, that bodes well for the Chiefs. But, remember, you're not necessarily betting on the Jaguars to score enough points here; you're betting against the Chiefs being able to score enough to beat them by more than a touchdown.
And from where we're standing, that's a pretty damn good bet.
The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5), under
Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. Buffalo Bills (+7)
Don't overthink this.
Quarterback Russell Wilson, still banged up, isn't himself, which means the Seattle Seahawks' offense won't be reaching its full potential anytime soon. But, that being said, can you really pick against the Seahawks at home? One week after they suffered a loss they probably shouldn't have against the New Orleans Saints?
No, you can't.
This line is made more appealing by the state of the Buffalo Bills' offense. Sammy Watkins is still out, and star running back LeSean McCoy is expected to miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury. Things are so dire in Buffalo, the team brought wide receiver Percy Harvin out of retirement just to complete their offense.
Think about that. Really think about it. The Bills are not even close to the same team that started this year on a tear. They are banged up and unable to compete with as much flair on offense. And though their defense won't give Wilson a lot of time to make plays, this seems like the type of game in which the Seahawks' defense might score a touchdown or two of its own while consistently setting up the offense with amazing field position.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-7), over
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