Thanksgiving Day highlights the NFL Week 12 slate of games. We’ve scoured all the matchups this week and have picked out three NFL Week 12 bets most worth your money. Keep on reading to get our expert betting advice!
- What: NFL Week 12
- When: First games are Thursday, November 23
Against The Spread: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Per tradition, Dallas will host one of the three games taking place on Thanksgiving. As it stands, the Cowboys are significant favorites over the Commanders on the spread. Here’s the latest odds available at NFL betting sites:
| Team |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas spread (-11.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Washington spread (+11.5) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
These two division rivals have yet to play against one another this season. Regardless, we feel getting 11 points on the spread is a little much for a divisional matchup.
Look, we get the line. The Commanders are coming off its worst performance of the season, a 31-19 loss at home to the lowly Giants. It was ugly in more ways than one. For starters, Washington turned the ball over six times (24 of the 31 points allowed came off turnovers). Then New York’s third-string quarterback, Tommy DeVito, looked half-decent in his second career start.
Washington has been swept in all four NFC North games now. However, we’re still picking them to cover the spread on Thursday and here’s why: this Commanders offense has firepower. Believe it or not, Sam Howell is leading the league in passing yards and is also fourth in touchdowns. This guy can sling it.
Even if Dallas builds up a big lead, which we believe probably happens, Howell has the spark to rack up garbage time points — points to cover that spread. The underdogs are worth a shot here, believe us.
Over/Under 41 Points: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
This is a history-making game. That’s because it’s going down on Black Friday — the first time the NFL has played on it. Here again, it’s a divisional matchup. We’re most interested in betting the Miami and New York over/under, which is set at a very modest number. Here’s how the line is pegged:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 41 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 41 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The Dolphins are amid an identity change it seems. For much of the season, offense has led the way, including a 70-point outburst early on. Now though? Defense has keyed Miami to a 7-3 record. Get this, Miami’s attack has been held to 20 points or less in three of the four previous games. During that same span, its defense has held opponents to 21 points or less in three of four too.
That’s a trend that might be worth riding into this Friday clash, especially when the Jets have their own identity crisis. At long last, Zack Wilson has been demoted from starting quarterback. The Jets have scored only 31 points combined in the last three weeks, which prompted the switch. But are things actually going to improve?
Probably not. New York is entrusting Tim Boyle to take over. The 29-year-old Boyle is an NFL journeyman in every sense of the word. He’s bounced around a few different NFL teams and has just three starts to his name. We fully expect the Jets’ offensive woes to continue against this fast-improving Dolphins defense. All this makes the under worthy of a bet.
Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
We’re sticking with our trend of betting divisional matchups in Week 12. This Rams vs. Cardinals game is a betting toss-up as it’s at pick ‘em. Check it out:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Arizona | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Cooper Kupp is injured — again. The stud wide receiver hurt his ankle in last weekend’s win over Seattle. Head coach Sean McVay has said “the goal” is to have Kupp suit up for Sunday’s game but it’s a giant question mark for now. If Kupp is out, then the Rams will likely benefit from the return of starting running back Kyren Williams. You have to take the good with the bad with LA.
These injuries have contributed to the Rams’ up-and-down season (they’re 4-6). Not having Kyler Murray most of the season is also why Arizona has only won two games (one of which came in Murray’s return). The Cards lost last week, but definitely had their opportunities to win against the Texans, but misfired on offense repeatedly.
LA brings an even better defense led by Aaron Donald to the fold than Houston did. Ultimately, we think this is what tilt the game in LA’s favor. Bet the road team to leave with a victory.
How To Bet On NFL Week 12?
We love the NFL Week 12 bets we covered above, but that’s certainly not all that is available. To get all NFL betting action this extended holiday weekend, hit one of the bookies featured below. These sites lead the way in NFL betting thanks to deep betting menus, as outlined in our latest sportsbook reviews.
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