We’ve reached the All-Star break in the MLB season. Festivities at Dodgers Stadium start with the home run derby on Monday followed by the All-Star game itself the day after. There’s money to be made during this time and you’ll want to read our MLB All-Star betting advice to do just that. Read on for three expert picks!
Home Run Derby Betting Picks
Let’s begin with the home-run derby which features several big names including Pete Alonso, Ronald Acuna Jr., Albert Pujos, and Juan Soto, among others. We have two different betting picks to make on the Home Run Derby. Allow us to explain:
Home Run Derby Winner
Major online sportsbooks have posted betting odds to win for all eight players participating. Here’s where the lines stand:
|Ronald Acuna Jr||+600||+600|
No one should be surprised Alonso is the odds-on favorite. He’s won the last two Home Run Derby’s and is going for three on Monday (the only player to accomplish that is Ken Griffey Jr., though, it didn’t come consecutively). He’ll draw Acuna in the first round, which isn’t the easiest of matchups but still winnable for Alonso given his pedigree.
As a refresher, the derby is a single-elimination bracket. This goes on for three rounds until a winner is decided. Batters have three minutes to belt as many homers as possible in the first and second rounds and two minutes in the final championship round. This has been the annual format since 2015.
Dare we say Alonso is a mandatory bet? He’s never been beaten at the contest and set records more times than once. He long-balled 35 times in the 2021 first round and 23 in the final round (both in 2019 and 2021), both are contest highs for the respective rounds. He has a natural enthusiasm for the contest and the $1 million grand prize sure helps. Alonso HAS to be one of your bets, ok?
If you don’t share out optimism for Alonso, then Soto is a solid backup option. His +700 price is on the high side. Yes, he’s having a down year (batting .250 and “only” hitting 19 home runs), but the power-hitting ability is still there — he smashed a 520-foot homer in the 2021 contest, after all.
In the first round, the No. 3-seeded Corey Seager faces off No. 6 seed Julio Rodriguez. Betting-wise, it’s the closest matchup with Rodriguez having the slight edge. Here are the current odds:
Seager is tied for ninth league-wide in home runs with 22. That’s a massive tear considering his personal career best is 26, set during his rookie campaign six years ago. At this pace, he’s on his way to 40 dingers.
Rodriguez is a rookie — and probably the best one in this class. He’s only at 16 home runs this season, but most of ‘em have come recently. It took 21 games before he smashed one out of the park and since then he’s been a league leader in going yard. He comes into the contest on a hotter streak when it comes to home runs.
We’re taking Rodriguez to pull off the victory. His more streaky ways will spoil Seager’s return to Dodgers Stadium.
MLB All-Star Game Betting Pick
We move on to the American League vs. National League matchup. Popular baseball betting sites have set the NL as the slight betting favorite (-111), but we’re not wagering on the moneyline. Instead, our All-Star Game pick is centered on the over/under, which is pegged at eight runs. Below are the current lines:
|Over 8 runs||+105||+105|
|Under 8 runs||-125||-125|
We’ll be completely upfront and say we envision the game being low-scoring. That’s based on recent matchups which have trended that way. Since the 2016 game, four out of five games have ended in seven runs or less scored. The only outlier? The 14 combined runs tallied in 2018.
Dodgers Stadium is another variable worth considering here. The reputation is it’s a “pitchers park.” Though, it may be more neutral if you take a closer look at the metrics. Still, don’t expect to see massive bombs being hammered come the All-Star game.
Starting pitchers have yet to be announced as of this publish date, but it’s not like either team will be short on arm talent. The AL has their pick with Justin Verlander or more than likely, Shane McClanahan. Likewise, the NL is deep with the likes of Sandy Alcantar, Tony Gonsolin, and Clayton Kershaw. All this leads us to believe the All-Star game will stay under eight runs scored.
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