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Eric Uribe | Fri 11/12/2020 - 08:11 EST

UFC 256 Betting Predictions

UFC 256 Betting Predictions
UFC 256 — the last pay-per-view of the year — features a familiar headliner in Deiveson Figueiredo. He just main evented the previous UFC 255 and now has a 21-day turnaround in his next title defense. Tony Ferguson is also in action in the semi-main event. We preview both fights, plus offer betting advance in advance of the December 12 card!

We have multiple UFC 256 betting predictions, but before we get to them, let's take a quick peek at how online oddsmakers are pegging a few main card matchups:

Deiveson Figueiredo-285+245Brandon Moreno
Tony Ferguson-150+130Charles Oliveira
Rafael Fiziev-130+110Renato Moicano

Outside of just betting, if you're looking for a good promotion, there's plenty to be at the moment. Most online bookies offer a sign-up bonus to first-time bettors. Upon joining the bookmaker, they'll give the user free play — which can reach as much as $1000 — based on their first deposit. Of course, the free money can be risked on UFC 256 or any other sport for that matter.

Alright, let's get to the good stuff now. For the sake of time, let's preview the top three bouts on the UFC 256 main card with betting picks, of course.

Check out the best UFC betting sites here.

Record Title Defense In Main Event

The 21 days that elapse between UFC 255 and 256 will be the quickest turnaround for a title defense in company history. We'd worry about the chances of flyweight title-holder Deiveson Figueiredo, but his opponent, Brandon Moreno faces the same exact predicament. 

Both were impressive at UFC 255, each winning in the first round. Moreno earned the TKO victory right before the ending bell sounded, while Figueiredo earned a submission win. Despite the similar outcomes, Figueiredo is almost a one-to-three favorite across betting circles.

The lopsided odds make sense given the absolute tear Figueiredo has been on. Since dropping his one and only fight during his career, he's won five in a row — three of which by the first-round submission. 

Speaking of which, there's probably more betting value in a prop wager like the exact method of victory rather than the outright winner. The latter's odds are too one-sided to earn any money unless you foresee a Moreno victory, which we surely don't. 

So if Figueiredo retains the championship, how so? Welp, as we alluded to before, he's a submission machine thanks to his Brazillian jiu-jitsu background. One problem, however: Moreno has never tapped out in his career. His five losses all came via decision.

That, plus Moreno's own impressive run as of late (he's 4-0-1 since 2019), leads us to believe this one will go to the judge's scorecard. This fight should be a violent one, but in the end, Figueiredo earns the decision. 

Betting pick to make: Figueiredo by submission

El Cucoy Out For Revenge

One of UFC's most must-see fighters, Tony "El Cucoy" Ferguson, returns to the octagon after taking an absolute beating the last time out courtesy of Justin Gaethje — a fight that ended his 12-match win streak. Ferguson showed his iron chin in that bout but looked slower and less powerful than his normal self.

His opponent at UFC 256, Charles Oliveira, is no pushover despite a so-so 29-8-1 career mark. Oliveira has strung together seven consecutive victories. That hot streak is why oddsmakers are nearly split on the outcome between light heavyweight.

In many ways, this bout mimics the headline bout. Perhaps most noticeable, Oliveira is the gold standard when it comes to submissions. His 14 wins via tap-out is a UFC record. Ferguson, however, has submitted just once in his entire career. 

As tough as this bout is to predict, our money is on Ferguson. Yes, he was pulverized by Gaethje, but let's not forget he cut weight twice within a month in the lead-up to that fight — his first scheduled match against Khabib Nurmagomedov was canceled, but Tony being Tony, cut weight anyway. That, more than anything else, was why he appeared so sluggish against Gaethje. Expect to see "El Cucoy" back to usual form against Oliveira. 

Plus, can you really trust Oliveira in a big-time fight? As good as a career he's put together, he seems to always come up short against the sport's best — Donald Cerrone, Frankie Edgar, and Max Halloway. We just don't trust him enough to finally "get over the hump."

Betting pick to make: Ferguson (-150)

Moicano vs. Fiziev Is A Coin-Toss

The battle between lightweights is essentially a pick 'em fight, however, Fiziev is getting slight favoritism from bookies.

We agree with that sentiment. The 27-year-old Fiziev is 8-1 all-time and has won back-to-back bouts by decision. Whereas, Moicano is more hot and cold. A shocking loss to Jose Aldo derailed what looked like a skyrocketing career — he was 13-1-1 before the defeat. Moicano followed that with another loss before getting back in the win column in his last match.

Both these fighters love striking standing-up, which could make for a Fight of the Night-caliber affair. In the end, we're picking Fiziev, who is well on his way to a division ranking after running through most of his opponents. 

Betting pick to make: Fiziev (-130)

If you're looking for more UFC 256 odds, you can find them at one of the online sportsbooks below. Of course, you can also wager on the fight at any one of them. Account registration takes minutes, if not seconds. Once created, deposit money, and you're ready to wager — really, it's that easy! 

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