Will the Nuggets finish off the Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Our money says yes, but that doesn’t mean the Heat aren’t worth some bets tonight either. Get our three favorite bets of the NBA Finals matchup right here!
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
- What: Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals
- When: June 12, 2023
NBA Finals Game 5 Preview
Let’s start our preview of Game 5 of the NBA Finals with a look at the moneyline odds. These are available at the top-used NBA betting sites and zero surprise, the home team are big favorites to close out:
| Team |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | -380 | -380 | -380 |
| Miami | +310 | +310 | +310 |
The Nuggets seized all momentum with back-to-back double-digit wins in Miami. The key to Denver’s success after losing Game 2? Stifling the Heat's three-point shot. They allowed 17 shots in its only Finals loss, mainly due to failed switches on defense. However, the team has cleaned that up allowing only 19 combined in the past two meetings — 11 in Game 3 and eight in Game 4. Without the three-point shot, Miami’s role players have largely been ineffective.
Speaking of role players, the Nuggets' own have stepped up. Jamal Murray went off in Game 3 with a triple-double of 34 points, 10 assists, and 10 rebounds. Aaron Gordon played hero in Game 4 with a 27-point outburst. And of course, Nikola Jokic has been his usual superstar self. Among both teams, The Joker leads in most individual categories (e.g. points, rebounds, etc.).
At this point, Denver’s biggest foil could be themselves. This is its first-ever close-out game and they realistically have three chances at doing so if it goes to Game 7. Maybe they let their guard down against a scrappy Heat team that’s used to playing with their back against the wall (more on that soon).
Best Bets For NBA Finals Game 5
There are dozens and dozens of NBA Finals Game 5 bets available. However, if you can only put your money on a select few, then let it be these three below:
Over/Under 208.5 Points
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 208.5 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 208.5 points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Oddsmakers are being conservative with an over/under of only 208.5 points. That’s for good reason too given the Heat’s cold shooting at home, which can only go up now they’re on the road, right? Well, not so fast.
If anything, Miami might cherish being in the position. They seem to play their best when overlooked, as they’ve been most of the postseason as an eighth seed. The Heat has responded over and over during this run, including seven road wins and a 2-0 mark when facing elimination.
Our money says the Heat find ways to knock down shots. Yes, the Nuggets dialed up the defense, but Miami also missed a lot of good looks. Get this, in the past two games, key shooters Gabe Vincent and Max Strus are a combined 4-for-27. No way that continues. We’re betting the over behind an improved Heat offense in a must-win game.
Spread
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver (-9) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Miami (+9) | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The Nuggets are clearly more talented than the Heat. But even then, we don’t think they win this game by 10 points or more. That’s because we respect Erik Spoelstra’s coaching ability too much to allow his team to lose three straight games by double digits.
We have a gut feeling Butler will have a “Playoff Jimmy” moment. By that, we mean a breakout game where he puts Miami on his back. Kudos to Gordon for hounding him on defense through four games — an effort that’s flying under the radar. But Butler still has that “dog” in him that’s overdue for a big game. Bet on the Heat to keep Game 5 competitive at the very least.
Moneyline
It’s over, folks — the Nuggets are your 2023 NBA Champions. While we’ve talked up the Heat plenty in this article, that’s only for them to go down fighting, not actually steal this game. Denver is clearly overmatching them and Game 5 will follow suit.
Of course, the Denver betting line isn’t exactly rich in betting value. That’s why it makes sense to put this in a same-game parlay with one of the two bets we mentioned before, just to squeeze some extra value out of this season-ending game.
How To Bet On 2023 NBA Finals
If we are right about our moneyline pick above, then betting on today’s NBA Finals game could be your last opportunity until the season re-starts in the Fall. That’s a massive wait so if you want one final cash-out, hit one of the bookmakers below. Each of the sites you see is rated the highest in our newest sportsbook reviews so your money is in good hands no matter where.
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