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Super Bowl 2021 Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The biggest wagering event of the entire year deserves a jam-packed Super Bowl 2021 betting guide — and we have it all for you right here!
Let's not waste any time and get right into our Super Bowl betting picks. We have expert advice on picking the moneyline, spread, and over/under!
Betting The Over/Under 56.5 Points
To be completely blunt, we're a little taken back by the point total. The over/under seems a tad bit too conservative given these two high-octane teams.
The stats clearly illustrate Kansas City and Tampa are two of the league's most explosive offenses. In total yards, the Chiefs finished atop the NFL (415.8 yards per game), whereas the Buccaneers ranked seventh (384.1 yards). And in points scored, third-ranked Tampa edged out sixth-place Kansas City, 30.8 points to 29.6 points on average.
And neither team has slowed the scoring pace in the postseason, games that are typically more defensive-minded might we add. In three wins, the Bucs are averaging 30.7 points. The Chiefs are right there with a 30-point average in its two victories. Yep, there's nothing typical about these two offensive juggernauts.
Just count the playmakers on this side of the ball — Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, need us to go on? It's a who's-who of proven playmakers over the years.
And of course, these offenses just so happen to be led by two G.O.A.Ts. Mahomes is the best quarterback today bar none, while Brady is the greatest of all-time bar none. With seven Super Bowl wins between them, the odds are both come to play on February 7.
So if you haven't figured it out by now, we're advising you to take the over. Hammer it, as a matter of fact. If you don't, welp, you're more or less wagering that the Brady-Mahomes combo will be held in check, which we believe is asinine given all their glory.
Betting pick to make: Over 56.5 points
Betting The 3.5 Spread
File this under the "shocking, but true" tab: when the Chiefs smoked the Bills 38-24 in the AFC championship, it marked the first time Kansas City covered the spread in its last 10 games.
While the Chiefs have been one of the league's worst ATS teams in the second half of the year, the Bucs have been among the past. Take its previous 10 games, Tampa is 7-3 spread-wise during that stretch.
What's more, they actually went head-to-head amidst this timeframe back in week 12. Kansas City went into Tampa and pulled out a 27-24 win that was actually more out of reach than the score indicates. The Chiefs led 27-10 at the end of the third quarter before the Bucs tacked on some garbage points.
But what would you know, Kansas City faces the same exact situation in the rematch, a "road game" for them per se. With the game being played in Raymond James Stadium, Tampa is the first-ever team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium.
However, don't expect a home-crowd advantage for the Buccaneers. Only 22,500 fans will be let in, one-third of which will be vaccinated, healthcare workers. The other two-thirds? Probably uber-rich people and business professionals let in for free — not exactly Bucs faithful.
Still, we like what we're seeing out of Tampa Bay. They haven't lost a game since the Chiefs matchup and gutting back-to-back victories on the road versus New Orleans and Green Bay is an incredible feat. The red-hot Bucs will keep it close inside its home stadium.
Betting pick to make: Tampa (+3.5)
Betting The Moneyline
We've already called it — a Super Bowl shootout that goes down to the wire. Now, who wins?
We're going with Kansas City to take it all. Simply put, this is a dynasty in the making with Mahomes and coach Andy Reid paralleling what Brady had with Bill Belichick in New England.
But here's exactly how the Chiefs go back-to-back as champions: winning the turnover battle. Whichever team has the extra possession or two will win the Super Bowl, simply as that.
In a battle of turnovers, we just trust Mahomes to protect the football better than Brady. In 17 games this season, Mahomes has thrown only six picks. Brady, though, has chucked 15 interceptions in 19 games — the most in his career since 2011.
The Mahomes-led Chiefs are a team you don't want to give any extra chances to and that'll be the difference-maker come Super Bowl time. Wager on Kansas City to outright win, folks!
Betting pick to make: Kansas City (-170)
Phew, we just covered a lot of ground. But that means nothing if you don't actually bet on Super Bowl LV — whether that's with us or against us. Good thing there's no shortage of online sportsbooks these days. You can find the "best of the best" in the table below.
But we saved the best for last. If you register at one of the listed bookmakers, you could earn thousands of dollars in free money right away. It's called a sign-up bonus and each betting site has its best deal of the year running right now to capitalize on the Super Bowl hype. Here's how the promotion works: create an account, deposit money, and boom, you'll earn a match percentage in free play. That's it! See below for more offer details and don't leave free money on the table!
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